Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Marlins vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 31)
Last updated: August 31, 2025Game Time: 8/31, 01:40PM
Today's Setup
The Miami Marlins face off against the New York Mets in this anticipated matchup at Citi Field. DraftKings lists the Mets as a -180 favorite, with the Marlins as a +147 underdog, and 78% of the betting money is backing the Mets. With both teams bringing intriguing pitching matchups and batting lineups, this game offers potential edges for bettors.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Kodai Senga (NYM)
Sandy Alcantara (MIA):
- Arsenal: Sinker (23% usage, 97.2 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 90.5 mph), Four-Seam (21% usage, 97.5 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 85.5 mph), Slider (16% usage, 89.3 mph)
Sandy Alcantara is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a balanced mix of pitch types, making him a formidable opponent on the mound. The Mets lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .268 against Alcantara's arsenal, suggesting a slight edge for the Mets' hitters.
Kodai Senga (NYM):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam (44% usage, 94.7 mph), Cutter (28% usage, 89.6 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 88.6 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 79.6 mph), Slider (8% usage, 83.2 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 68.5 mph)
Kodai Senga brings a varied pitch mix with a primary reliance on his four-seam fastball. The Marlins lineup averages .275 this season, with a projected xBA of .276 against Senga's offerings, indicating a marginally favorable matchup for Miami's hitters.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Marlins vs Kodai Senga:
- The Marlins lineup, which averages .275 this season, projects to .276 against Senga's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Agustín Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .291 (+41 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.5% (-7.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jakob Marsee: Season BA .343 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (-50 points), Season K% 22.4% → Arsenal K% 18.4% (-4.0%)
For Mets vs Sandy Alcantara:
- The Mets lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .268 against Alcantara's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Brett Baty: Season BA .255 → xBA vs arsenal .284 (+29 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (-3.0%)
- Biggest Decrease: Hayden Senger: Season BA .185 → xBA vs arsenal .171 (-14 points), Season K% 28.2% → Arsenal K% 38.7% (+10.5%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Marlins' projected K-rate is 17.0% vs Kodai Senga — down 2.1% from their 19.1% season average.
- The Mets' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs Sandy Alcantara — up 1.2% from their 20.2% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .291, +41 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Kodai Senga strikeout OVER - Marlins' K-rate drops to 17.0% vs this arsenal, suggesting potential upside.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Agustín Ramírez presents a strong batting prop opportunity with a significant boost in xBA against Senga.
- Kodai Senga's varied pitch mix against a lower K-rate Marlins lineup suggests a potential strikeout prop.
- The lack of announced umpire makes betting on walk and strikeout props riskier.
- Given the betting odds and statistical edges, consider focusing on individual player props for this matchup.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Marlins vs Mets game? A: Agustín Ramírez presents a strong betting prop with a significant increase in projected xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
Q: What time is the Marlins vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/31, 01:40PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
