Game Time: 7/13, 01:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Miami Marlins are set to take on the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. According to DraftKings, the Orioles are favored at -121, with the Marlins standing as +100 underdogs and 64% of the money backing the Orioles. The game features a compelling pitching duel that could be pivotal in determining the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs. Brandon Young
Eury Pérez (MIA):
Pérez brings a velocity-heavy approach with a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (52% usage, 98.1 mph), Slider (22% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 79.8 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 89.6 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 83.4 mph), and Sinker (3% usage, 96.6 mph). The Orioles lineup has a season average of .252 with a projected xBA of .252 against Pérez's arsenal, suggesting a balanced matchup.
Brandon Young (BAL):
Young relies on a mix of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 93.6 mph), Curveball (19% usage, 76.5 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 87.5 mph), Cutter (13% usage, 86.2 mph), and Splitter (13% usage, 86.9 mph). The Marlins lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .254 against Young's arsenal, indicating a slight advantage for the pitcher.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Marlins vs. Brandon Young:
The Marlins lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .254 against Young's arsenal. Agustín Ramírez shows the biggest increase in xBA: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .291 (+41 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.6% (-5.9%). Xavier Edwards has the biggest decrease: Season BA .289 → xBA vs. arsenal .253 (-36 points), Season K% 14.8% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (+1.7%).
For Orioles vs. Eury Pérez:
The Orioles lineup averages .252 this season and projects to .252 against Pérez's arsenal. Ryan O'Hearn sees the biggest increase in xBA: Season BA .288 → xBA vs. arsenal .316 (+28 points), Season K% 16.4% → Arsenal K% 18.7% (+2.3%). Alex Jackson has the biggest decrease: Season BA .264 → xBA vs. arsenal .228 (-36 points), Season K% 20.2% → Arsenal K% 20.6% (+0.4%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 22.4% vs. Young — up 2.3% from their 20.0% season average. The Orioles' projected K-rate is 24.5% vs. Pérez — up 0.5% from their 24.0% season average. These increases offer some strikeout potential but are not overly significant for betting props.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
None of the Marlins or Orioles batters meet the strict criteria where xBA > 0.300 AND boost > +20 points. Therefore, no batting leans are suggested based on the data.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Marlins' and Orioles' strikeout rates do not meet the criteria for a lean, as neither surpasses a 25% projection with an increase > 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. Without standout batting or strikeout prop opportunities, bettors might consider the moneyline or total runs based on line movements and public money distribution.
