Game Time: 7/27, 02:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
Today's matchup features the Miami Marlins taking on the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers, backed by 77% of the money, are favored at -181 according to DraftKings, while the Marlins enter as +148 underdogs. With a strong pitching duel on the docket, bettors will be keenly watching the battle between Eury Pérez and Brandon Woodruff.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Eury Pérez vs Brandon Woodruff
Eury Pérez (MIA):
Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 98.0 mph), Slider (21% usage, 86.2 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 80.0 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 83.5 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 89.7 mph), Sinker (2% usage, 96.6 mph).
Pérez is known for his velocity-heavy approach, relying heavily on his fastball to overpower hitters. The Brewers lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .258 against Pérez's arsenal, suggesting a tightly contested battle.
Brandon Woodruff (MIL):
Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 92.9 mph), Sinker (27% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 83.4 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 89.3 mph), Curveball (4% usage, 78.8 mph), Sweeper (3% usage, 80.6 mph).
Woodruff mixes his pitches effectively, using a balanced approach that keeps hitters guessing. The Marlins lineup averages .261 this season with a projected xBA of .264 against Woodruff's arsenal, indicating they may find some success.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Marlins lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .264 against Woodruff's mix. Notably, Agustín Ramírez shows a significant improvement with a season BA of .250 moving to a .303 xBA against Woodruff's pitches (+53 points), with his K% dropping from 22.5% to 15.1% (-7.4%). Conversely, Jesús Sánchez's season BA of .250 drops to .231 (-19 points) with a K% improvement from 22.5% to 17.2% (-5.3%).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Brewers lineup averages .258 this season and projects to .258 against Pérez's arsenal. Andrew Vaughn sees a significant boost with his season BA of .212 jumping to .294 against Pérez (+82 points), while Jackson Chourio’s BA drops from .271 to .252 (-19 points), with his K% rising from 20.5% to 23.8% (+3.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Marlins' projected K-rate is 17.8% vs. Woodruff — down 1.6% from their 19.3% season average, indicating a contact-heavy game. The Brewers' projected K-rate is 21.0% vs. Pérez — up 1.5% from their 19.6% season average, suggesting a potential for increased strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Agustín Ramírez (.250 → .303, +53) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Andrew Vaughn (.212 → .294, +82) = NO LEAN ❌ (.294 < .300)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team presents a notable strikeout prop opportunity based on our criteria.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Agustín Ramírez - his .303 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +53 point boost.
CRITICAL EXAMPLES:
Juan Soto (.263 → .369, +106) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Randal Grichuk (.235 → .278, +43) = NO LEAN ❌ (.278 < .300)
Player (.285 → .315, +30) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Atlanta 23.4% → 27.6% K% (+4.2%) = LEAN OVER ✅ (meets both criteria)
