September 1, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Mariners vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 01)

Last updated: September 01, 2025

Game Time: 9/1, 07:35PM

Brief Intro

The Seattle Mariners take on the Tampa Bay Rays in a compelling matchup that promises to be a test of pitching prowess. With Luis Castillo and Shane Baz on the mound, both teams will rely heavily on their aces to navigate through potent lineups. Despite the intrigue, the betting odds are not currently available for this game.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Luis Castillo vs Shane Baz

Luis Castillo (SEA):

Luis Castillo brings a dynamic arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 95.0 mph), Sinker (22% usage, 94.8 mph), Slider (19% usage, 84.6 mph), and Changeup (12% usage, 87.2 mph). Castillo is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on his fastball and sinker to overpower hitters. The Rays lineup, which has averaged .260 this season, projects a .250 xBA against Castillo’s mix.

Shane Baz (TB):

Shane Baz counters with his own impressive array of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 96.9 mph), Curveball (27% usage, 84.8 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 90.0 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 89.4 mph), and Slider (4% usage, 86.7 mph). Baz's high-velocity fastball and deceptive curveball pose significant challenges. The Mariners lineup, averaging .256 on the season, projects a .249 xBA against Baz's arsenal.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Seattle vs Shane Baz:

The Mariners lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .249 against Baz's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Dominic Canzone: Season BA .283 → xBA vs arsenal .309 (+26 points), Season K% 20.95% → Arsenal K% 21.2% (+0.25%)
Biggest Decrease: Cal Raleigh: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .207 (-33 points), Season K% 27.12% → Arsenal K% 29.8% (+2.68%)

For Tampa Bay vs Luis Castillo:

The Rays lineup averages .260 this season but projects to .250 against Castillo's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Carson Williams: Season BA .253 → xBA vs arsenal .276 (+23 points), Season K% 21.69% → Arsenal K% 24.2% (+2.51%)
Biggest Decrease: Bob Seymour: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .181 (-69 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+8.0%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mariners' projected K-rate is 23.64% vs Baz — up 3.66% from their 19.99% season average.
The Rays' projected K-rate is 21.47% vs Castillo — up 1.97% from their 19.50% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Dominic Canzone (.283 → .309, +26 points) meets betting lean criteria!

No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our betting threshold in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Dominic Canzone presents a promising prop opportunity with a projected xBA significantly above .300.
Despite increased strikeout projections, no pitcher prop opportunities meet the necessary criteria.
Umpire assignment is unavailable, adding uncertainty to potential prop outcomes.
Overall, Dominic Canzone offers the strongest statistical edge in batter props based on current data.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mariners vs Rays game? A: Dominic Canzone (.283 → .309, +26 points) meets our strict betting criteria.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making this aspect uncertain.

Q: What time is the Mariners vs Rays game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/1 at 07:35PM.

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