August 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Mariners vs Mets: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 17)

Last updated: August 17, 2025

Game Time: 8/17, 07:10PM

Matchup Setup

The Seattle Mariners head to New York to face the Mets in a matchup drawing significant betting interest. DraftKings lists the Mariners as a −126 favorite, while the Mets are at +104, with 52% of the money backing the Mets. This game is set up as a pitcher’s duel with George Kirby and Clay Holmes on the mound, both bringing distinct arsenals.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs Clay Holmes

George Kirby (SEA):

George Kirby offers a balanced pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 96.0 mph), Slider (27% usage, 87.0 mph), Sinker (25% usage, 96.0 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 84.2 mph), Splitter (4% usage, 85.9 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 87.3 mph). This pitch arsenal characterizes him as a versatile pitcher capable of adapting his approach based on the batter. The Mets lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .267 against Kirby's varied arsenal.

Clay Holmes (NYM):

Holmes is a sinker specialist: Sinker (40% usage, 93.7 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 81.8 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 88.1 mph), Slider (11% usage, 85.3 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 89.6 mph), Four-Seam (6% usage, 93.2 mph). His sinker-heavy approach can induce ground balls and weak contact. The Mariners lineup, averaging .262 this season, projects slightly lower at an xBA of .255 against Holmes.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Mariners vs Clay Holmes:

The Mariners lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .255 against Holmes' arsenal.
Jorge Polanco: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (+34 points), Season K% 14.99% → Arsenal K% 15.3% (+0.31%).

For the Mets vs George Kirby:

The Mets lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .267 against Kirby's arsenal.
Jeff McNeil: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .293 (+43 points), Season K% 10.53% → Arsenal K% 11.3% (+0.77%).

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mariners' projected K-rate is 20.9% vs Holmes, up 1.2% from their 19.7% season average.
The Mets' projected K-rate is 20.7% vs Kirby, up 0.5% from their 20.2% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jorge Polanco (.245 → .279, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!

📢 Prop Alert: Jeff McNeil (.250 → .293, +43 points) meets betting lean criteria!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Jorge Polanco and Jeff McNeil both show significant statistical advantages against the opposing pitchers, offering potential prop value.
George Kirby and Clay Holmes both have lineups that project better against them than their season averages, suggesting a challenging outing.
Umpire assignment is currently unknown, adding uncertainty to the strikeout and walk props.
With both teams slightly increasing in K-rate against the opposing pitchers, consider potential value in strikeout props.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mariners vs Mets game? A: Both Jorge Polanco and Jeff McNeil meet our strict betting criteria for increased xBA against the opposing pitchers.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, so tendencies are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the Mariners vs Mets game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/17 at 07:10PM.

---

Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!

See all our best bets daily!

---