September 6, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Mariners vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 06)

Last updated: September 06, 2025

Game Time: 9/6, 07:15PM

Matchup Setup

The Seattle Mariners travel to face the Atlanta Braves in a highly anticipated matchup. DraftKings lists the Braves as a -145 favorite, while the Mariners are +118 underdogs. Interestingly, 61% of the money is backing the Mariners, suggesting potential value in the underdog.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Bryce Miller (SEA) vs Hurston Waldrep (ATL)

Bryce Miller (SEA):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 94.6 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 94.4 mph), Splitter (17% usage, 83.7 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 83.2 mph), Slider (9% usage, 85.5 mph), Sweeper (5% usage, 82.8 mph), Cutter (2% usage, 91.4 mph)

Bryce Miller is a versatile pitcher known for his balanced pitch mix, with no single pitch dominating his arsenal. This diverse approach could challenge the Braves, who average .258 this season but have a projected xBA of .243 against Miller's offerings.

Hurston Waldrep (ATL):

Arsenal: Splitter (33% usage, 86.7 mph), Cutter (25% usage, 93.1 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 95.6 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 82.1 mph), Slider (12% usage, 87.4 mph), Four-Seam (3% usage, 95.8 mph)

Hurston Waldrep features a heavy splitter and cutter combination, making him a velocity-heavy pitcher with a focus on creating weak contact. The Mariners' lineup, which hits .256 on the season, is projected to hit .254 against Waldrep's arsenal.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Seattle Mariners vs Hurston Waldrep:

The Mariners lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .254 vs Waldrep's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Dominic Canzone: Season BA .282 → xBA vs arsenal .346 (+64 points), Season K% 20.8% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+2.3%).
Biggest Decrease: Cole Young: Season BA .235 → xBA vs arsenal .194 (-41 points), Season K% 16.9% → Arsenal K% 31.0% (+14.1%).

For Atlanta Braves vs Bryce Miller:

The Braves lineup averages .259 this season but projects to .243 vs Miller's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: II Harris: Season BA .249 → xBA vs arsenal .277 (+28 points), Season K% 20.1% → Arsenal K% 22.7% (+2.6%).
Biggest Decrease: Ha-Seong Kim: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (-63 points), Season K% 28.5% → Arsenal K% 28.5% (+0.0%).

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

For the Mariners:

The Mariners' projected K-rate is 23.9% vs Waldrep — up 3.9% from their 20.0% season average.

For the Braves:

The Braves' projected K-rate is 24.0% vs Miller — up 3.1% from their 20.9% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Dominic Canzone (.282 → .346, +64 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No pitchers meet our strict criteria for strikeout props in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Dominic Canzone shows a significant batting edge against Waldrep's arsenal.
Neither pitcher shows a strong enough K-rate increase to suggest a strikeout prop.
Umpire assignment is TBA, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
The Mariners as underdogs may offer value given the betting public's backing.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Mariners vs Braves game? A: Dominic Canzone is the standout batter, showing a significant boost in expected batting average against Waldrep.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so current tendencies aren't available.

Q: What time is the Mariners vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled to start at 9/6, 07:15PM.

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