Game Time: 7/10, 07:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Seattle Mariners are set to take on the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. With Seattle listed as a -126 favorite and New York as a +104 underdog, the betting lines suggest a competitive matchup. Notably, 58% of the betting money is backing the Mariners, highlighting public confidence in Seattle's chances.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo vs. Marcus Stroman
Bryan Woo (SEA):
Woo's arsenal comprises a Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 95.5 mph), Sinker (27% usage, 95.2 mph), Slider (13% usage, 88.3 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 89.7 mph), and Sweeper (8% usage, 84.3 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Woo's fastballs set the tone, but his diverse pitch mix can keep hitters off balance. The Yankees lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .270 against Woo's offerings, indicating potential for effective contact.
Marcus Stroman (NYY):
Stroman features a Sinker (38% usage, 89.5 mph), Slurve (23% usage, 81.8 mph), Cutter (12% usage, 88.7 mph), Splitter (8% usage, 84.0 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (8% usage, 89.4 mph), Slider (7% usage, 84.3 mph), and Curveball (3% usage, 77.6 mph). Known for his command and movement, Stroman's ability to mix speeds and locations is crucial. The Mariners lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .278 versus Stroman's arsenal, suggesting an upward trend in offensive potential.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Mariners lineup averages .257 this season but projects to .278 against Stroman's pitches. J.P. Crawford stands out with a season BA of .287 compared to an xBA of .372 (+85 points), while Julio Rodríguez sees a decrease, with his season BA of .250 declining to an xBA of .210 (-40 points).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Yankees' lineup averages .257 but projects a slight increase to .270 against Woo's arsenal. Anthony Volpe shows improvement, moving from a season BA of .217 to an xBA of .255 (+38 points), whereas Jasson Domínguez experiences a decline, with his season BA of .250 dropping to an xBA of .236 (-14 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Mariners' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs. Stroman — down 0.3% from their 20.5% season average, suggesting a potential reduction in strikeouts. Conversely, the Yankees' projected K-rate is 22.0% vs. Woo — down 0.7% from their 22.7% season average, indicating a similar trend towards more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
J.P. Crawford (.287 → .372, +85) and Jorge Polanco (.252 → .440, +188) both have xBAs above .300, with significant boosts suggesting strong batting leans.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant criteria met for team strikeout rates to suggest a lean on strikeout props.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jorge Polanco - his .440 xBA against Stroman's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold, with a significant +188 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold for pitcher strikeout props in this matchup.
