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July 12, 2025
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Mariners at Tigers MLB Betting Preview

Game Time: 7/12, 01:10 PM

1. Brief Intro

The Seattle Mariners will take on the Detroit Tigers in a closely watched matchup, with the Tigers favored at -132 on DraftKings and the Mariners as +108 underdogs. Notably, 89% of the betting action supports the Tigers, pointing to strong public confidence in Detroit's chances.

2. Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: George Kirby vs. Casey Mize
George Kirby (SEA):

Kirby brings a diverse arsenal with a Four-Seam Fastball (32% usage, 96.0 mph), Slider (27% usage, 87.4 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 95.9 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 84.4 mph), Splitter (4% usage, 86.0 mph), and Changeup (3% usage, 87.5 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Kirby's mix could challenge the Tigers, whose lineup averages .258 this season and projects a .258 xBA against Kirby's offerings.

Casey Mize (DET):

Mize utilizes a Four-Seam (33% usage, 94.5 mph), Splitter (27% usage, 88.7 mph), Slurve (16% usage, 83.2 mph), Slider (13% usage, 87.4 mph), and Sinker (12% usage, 94.6 mph). The Mariners lineup, averaging .258 on the season, projects a .268 xBA against Mize, suggesting a potential edge for Seattle's hitters.

3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:

The Mariners lineup, with a .257 season average, projects to a .268 xBA against Mize. J.P. Crawford stands out with a significant .286 → .347 (+61 points) increase in xBA and a reduced strikeout rate of 17.05% → 14.6% (-2.45%). Conversely, Randy Arozarena sees a notable decrease, with his xBA dropping from .247 to .199 (-48 points) and a strikeout increase to 31.3%.

For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:

The Tigers lineup, averaging .259, projects similarly at .258 against Kirby. Parker Meadows experiences the biggest boost, improving from .200 to .232 (+32 points) in xBA, albeit with a higher strikeout rate. Riley Greene sees the biggest drop, with his xBA declining from .279 to .245 (-34 points), although his strikeout rate remains stable.

4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Mariners' projected K-rate is 22.66% vs. Mize, up 2.27% from their 20.39% season average, suggesting moderate strikeout potential. Meanwhile, the Tigers' projected K-rate against Kirby is down slightly to 22.88% from a 23.10% season average, indicating a possible decrease in strikeouts.

5. Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
J.P. Crawford (.286 → .347, +61) meets our lean criteria with an xBA over .300 and a boost exceeding 20 points, making him a strong candidate for a batting prop.

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant lean is found as neither team’s projected strikeout rate exceeds 25% with a 4% increase.

STEP 3: Report findings
"Our final lean would be on J.P. Crawford - his .347 xBA against Mize’s arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +61 point boost."

CRITICAL EXAMPLES:
Juan Soto (.263 → .369, +106) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Randal Grichuk (.235 → .278, +43) = NO LEAN ❌ (.278 < .300)
Player (.285 → .315, +30) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Atlanta 23.4% → 27.6% K% (+4.2%) = LEAN OVER ✅ (meets both criteria)

No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup beyond the lean on J.P. Crawford's performance.

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