Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
LAD vs AZ: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 23)
Last updated: September 23, 2025
Game Time: TBD
Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks (AZ) in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Unfortunately, betting odds are not yet available for this game, but both teams' strengths and weaknesses can be analyzed through their key players and pitching matchups.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) vs Brandon Pfaadt (AZ)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 98.5 mph), Sweeper (24% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (12% usage, 88.1 mph), Curveball (8% usage, 78.9 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 96.2 mph), Cutter (6% usage, 93.9 mph), Splitter (5% usage, 90.3 mph).
Shohei Ohtani is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on a powerful fastball and a diverse mix of off-speed pitches to keep hitters off balance. The Arizona lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .242 against Ohtani's arsenal, indicating a potential edge for the pitcher.
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 93.6 mph), Sinker (24% usage, 93.1 mph), Sweeper (19% usage, 84.8 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 87.4 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 82.1 mph), Cutter (8% usage, 89.8 mph).
Brandon Pfaadt uses a balanced pitch mix aiming to exploit hitter weaknesses. The Dodgers lineup averages .245 this season and projects to a .254 xBA against Pfaadt's offerings, suggesting a slight advantage for the Dodgers’ hitters.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For LAD vs Brandon Pfaadt:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .245 this season but projects to .254 vs Pfaadt's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Ben Rortvedt: Season BA .160 → xBA vs arsenal .235 (+75 points), Season K% 17.5% → Arsenal K% 15.4% (-2.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Shohei Ohtani: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .232 (-58 points), Season K% 11.0% → Arsenal K% 24.4% (+13.4%)
For AZ vs Shohei Ohtani:
- The Diamondbacks lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .242 vs Ohtani's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Tim Tawa: Season BA .213 → xBA vs arsenal .241 (+28 points), Season K% 27.3% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (-1.1%)
- Biggest Decrease: Adrian Castillo: Season BA .239 → xBA vs arsenal .172 (-67 points), Season K% 37.5% → Arsenal K% 42.9% (+5.4%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- LAD's projected K-rate is 19.9% vs Brandon Pfaadt — up 2.1% from their 17.8% season average.
- AZ's projected K-rate is 25.3% vs Shohei Ohtani — up 2.3% from their 23.0% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ben Rortvedt (.160 → .235, +75 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No strikeout prop alerts meet our criteria as neither team shows a K% increase over 4% with a rate above 25%.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ben Rortvedt has a significant batting advantage against Pfaadt, making him a prime prop candidate.
- Shohei Ohtani could exploit Arizona's elevated K-rate, but no strikeout prop meets our strict criteria.
- Umpire data is unavailable, adding a layer of uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, focus on selective batting props given the current data insights.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the LAD vs AZ game? A: Ben Rortvedt (.160 → .235, +75 points) meets our strict betting criteria.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.
Q: What time is the LAD vs AZ game? A: Game time is TBD.
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