Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Jays vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 07)
Last updated: September 07, 2025Game Time: 9/7, 01:35PM
Game Overview
The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the New York Yankees in an exciting MLB matchup. The Yankees are favored by DraftKings with a -157 line, while the Blue Jays are +129 underdogs. A significant 73% of the betting public is backing the Yankees, indicating strong confidence in the home team.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs Max Fried
Max Scherzer (TOR):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 93.6 mph), Slider (24% usage, 86.4 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 84.9 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 76.6 mph), Cutter (3% usage, 87.5 mph)
- Interpretation: Scherzer is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a dominant fastball and a diverse secondary arsenal.
- Matchup Insight: The Yankees lineup averages .256 this season with a projected xBA of .243 vs Scherzer's arsenal.
Max Fried (NYY):
- Arsenal: Cutter (30% usage, 93.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.3 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 94.0 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage, 95.7 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 81.4 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 84.7 mph), Slider (2% usage, 85.2 mph)
- Matchup Insight: The Blue Jays lineup averages .277 this season but projects to .275 vs Fried's arsenal.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Blue Jays vs Max Fried:
- The Blue Jays lineup averages .277 this season but projects to .275 vs Fried's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .298 → xBA vs Fried .329 (+31 points), Season K% 14.0% → Arsenal K% 13.6% (-0.4%)
- Biggest Decrease: Davis Schneider: Season BA .245 → xBA vs Fried .171 (-74 points), Season K% 28.7% → Arsenal K% 36.6% (+7.9%)
For the Yankees vs Max Scherzer:
- The Yankees lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .243 vs Scherzer's arsenal.
- No significant increases.
- Biggest Decrease: Ben Rice: Season BA .292 → xBA vs Scherzer .216 (-76 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 34.4% (+12.4%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.1% vs Fried — down 1.1% from their 18.1% season average.
- The Yankees' projected K-rate is 28.4% vs Scherzer — up 3.8% from their 24.6% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.298 → .329, +31 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Max Scherzer strikeout OVER - Yankees' K-rate jumps to 28.4% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jr. Guerrero is a strong batting prop candidate with his significant boost in expected batting average.
- Max Scherzer offers a solid strikeout prop opportunity given the Yankees' projected increased strikeout rate.
- Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to walk and strikeout prop bets.
- Overall, betting leans highlight player-specific opportunities rather than team-wide advantages.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Blue Jays vs Yankees game? A: Jr. Guerrero stands out with a strong boost in expected batting average, meeting our criteria.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: The umpire assignment is TBA, so no tendencies can be assessed at this time.
Q: What time is the Blue Jays vs Yankees game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/7, 01:35PM.
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