Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Jays vs Yankees: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)
Last updated: September 05, 2025Game Time: 9/5, 07:05PM
Brief Intro
The Toronto Blue Jays face the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium in a game that features intriguing pitching matchups and lineup dynamics. With DraftKings listing the Yankees as -136 favorites and the Blue Jays as +112 underdogs, 71% of the betting action is backing Toronto. This clash promises to be a battle of strengths, with betting angles ripe for exploration.Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Cam SchlittlerKevin Gausman (TOR):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.4 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (8% usage, 82.9 mph), Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph)
Gausman is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying predominantly on his fastball and splitter to keep hitters off balance. The Yankees lineup, however, has struggled with a projected xBA of .224 against his arsenal this season, indicating a potential advantage for Gausman.
Cam Schlittler (NYY):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage, 97.9 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 91.3 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 83.2 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 97.2 mph), Sweeper (3% usage, 88.0 mph)
Schlittler brings a power-pitching profile with his high-velocity fastball and diverse pitch mix. The Blue Jays lineup, which averages .278 this season, projects to improve slightly to .284 against Schlittler's pitches, indicating a formidable challenge for the Yankees' right-hander.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesToronto Blue Jays vs Cam Schlittler:
- Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .293 → xBA vs arsenal .338 (+45 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 13.9% (-0.2%)
- Daulton Varsho: Season BA .239 → xBA vs arsenal .265 (+26 points), Season K% 29.4% → Arsenal K% 29.5% (+0.1%)
New York Yankees vs Kevin Gausman:
- Aaron Judge: Season BA .322 → xBA vs arsenal .213 (-109 points), Season K% 24.7% → Arsenal K% 41.0% (+16.3%)
- Ben Rice: Season BA .291 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-62 points), Season K% 22.1% → Arsenal K% 29.2% (+7.1%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards- Blue Jays' projected K-rate: 16.9% vs Cam Schlittler — down 0.2% from their 17.0% season average.
- Yankees' projected K-rate: 27.7% vs Kevin Gausman — up 3.2% from their 24.5% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.What to Bet On
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jr. Guerrero stands out as a prime candidate for a batting prop with a significant increase in projected xBA.
- The Yankees lineup faces a tough matchup with Gausman, particularly Aaron Judge, who sees a significant decrease in expected performance.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities as neither team's K-rate increase surpasses 4%.
- Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to strikeout and walk prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TOR vs NYY game? A: Jr. Guerrero meets our strict betting criteria with a significant jump in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced.
Q: What time is the TOR vs NYY game? A: 9/5, 07:05PM
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