Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Jays vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 18)
Last updated: September 18, 2025Game Time: 9/18, 01:10PM
Game Preview
The Toronto Blue Jays, currently favored at -131 on DraftKings, face off against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are +107 underdogs. With 84% of the betting money backing the Blue Jays, this matchup promises to be a competitive clash, especially with the pitching duel between Chris Bassitt and Shane Baz.Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Chris Bassitt vs Shane BazChris Bassitt (TOR):
Sinker (42% usage, 91.6 mph); Cutter (17% usage, 88.5 mph); Curveball (16% usage, 71.3 mph); Four-Seam (9% usage, 91.5 mph); Sweeper (6% usage, 72.6 mph); Splitter (4% usage, 83.6 mph); Slider (3% usage, 83.6 mph); Changeup (3% usage, 84.4 mph)Chris Bassitt is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance. The Tampa Bay lineup, averaging a .246 BA this season, projects a slight uptick to a .258 xBA against Bassitt's varied repertoire, indicating a potential for increased contact against his pitches.
Shane Baz (TB):
Four-Seam (44% usage, 96.9 mph); Curveball (27% usage, 85.0 mph); Cutter (14% usage, 90.2 mph); Changeup (11% usage, 89.3 mph); Slider (3% usage, 86.7 mph)Shane Baz brings a velocity-heavy approach, headlined by his four-seam fastball. The Blue Jays lineup, boasting a .270 season average, is expected to dip slightly to a .263 xBA against Baz's power arsenal.
Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting EdgesFor Toronto vs Shane Baz: Toronto's lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .263 against Baz's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .328 (+28 points), Season K% 13.4% → Arsenal K% 13.7% (+0.3%)
- Biggest Decrease: Addison Barger: Season BA .251 → xBA vs arsenal .228 (-23 points), Season K% 24.5% → Arsenal K% 27.0% (+2.5%)
For Tampa Bay vs Chris Bassitt: The Rays average .246 this season but are expected to improve to .258 against Bassitt's pitches.
- Biggest Increase: Hunter Feduccia: Season BA .159 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (+88 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 15.2% (-8.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Carson Williams: Season BA .253 → xBA vs arsenal .203 (-50 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 28.5% (+6.8%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards- The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 19.7% vs Shane Baz — up 1% from their 18.7% season average.
- The Rays' projected K-rate is 18.0% vs Chris Bassitt — down 4.4% from their 22.3% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Jr. Guerrero (.300 → .328, +28 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop opportunities meet our threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Jr. Guerrero presents a strong batting advantage against Shane Baz, with a significant increase in expected batting average.
- No standout pitcher prop opportunities exist due to minimal changes in team strikeout rates.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, Jr. Guerrero's hitting prop is the standout betting recommendation.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Jays vs Rays game? A: Jr. Guerrero meets our strict betting criteria with a projected increase in batting average against Shane Baz.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, adding potential volatility to the betting environment.
Q: What time is the Jays vs Rays game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/18 at 01:10PM.
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