September 17, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Michael Rivera

Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.

Jays vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)

Last updated: September 17, 2025

Game Time: 9/17, 07:05PM

Game Preview

Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays visit the Tampa Bay Rays in a critical AL East showdown. The Jays are favorites at -131, while the Rays are slight underdogs at +107, with 83% of the money backing Toronto. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and lineup dynamics that could sway the betting odds significantly.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Ian Seymour

Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Kevin Gausman brings a dynamic arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.4 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 84.9 mph), Slider (8% usage, 83.0 mph), and an occasional Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy approach, Gausman's splitter is especially devastating, often fooling hitters into swings and misses. The Rays' lineup struggles against his style, averaging .254 with a projected xBA of .248 against his offerings.

Ian Seymour (TB):

Ian Seymour counters with a diverse pitch mix: Changeup (34% usage, 83.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 91.9 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 88.5 mph), Sweeper (9% usage, 81.7 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 90.9 mph), and Curveball (1% usage, 73.7 mph). Seymour's approach focuses on disrupting timing, and he faces a Blue Jays lineup that averages .276 but projects a lower xBA of .266 against his arsenal.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Toronto vs Ian Seymour:

Toronto's lineup averages .276 this season but projects a .266 xBA against Seymour's arsenal.
Alejandro Kirk shows the biggest increase: Season BA .290 → xBA .321 (+30 points), Season K% 11.6% → Arsenal K% 12.6% (+1.0%).
Davis Schneider experiences the largest decrease: Season BA .243 → xBA .176 (-67 points), Season K% 28.4% → Arsenal K% 33.2% (+4.8%).

For Tampa Bay vs Kevin Gausman:

The Rays average .255 this season but project to a .248 xBA against Gausman's repertoire.
Carson Williams sees the most improvement: Season BA .253 → xBA .323 (+70 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 20.2% (-1.5%).
Chandler Simpson shows the biggest drop: Season BA .291 → xBA .246 (-45 points), Season K% 10.4% → Arsenal K% 20.3% (+9.9%).

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 16.8% vs Ian Seymour — up 0.3% from their 16.6% season average.
The Rays' projected K-rate is 25.3% vs Kevin Gausman — up 3.2% from their 22.1% season average.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Alejandro Kirk (.290 → .321, +30 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Rays' K-rate jumps to 25.3% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Alejandro Kirk is a standout prop opportunity with a significant xBA boost against Ian Seymour.
Kevin Gausman presents a favorable strikeout prop with the Rays' increased K-rate.
Umpire assignment is unknown, adding volatility to prop bets.
Overall, the betting edge leans towards Toronto with their deeper lineup and Gausman's favorable matchup.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the TOR vs TB game? A: Alejandro Kirk offers a strong betting prop opportunity against Ian Seymour with his improved xBA.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so tendencies are currently unknown.

Q: What time is the TOR vs TB game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/17, 07:05PM.

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