August 18, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Jays vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 18)

Last updated: August 18, 2025

Game Time: 8/18, 06:40PM

Matchup Setup

The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a clash that promises intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. While betting odds are not available for this game, our focus will be on dissecting the pitching matchups and lineup projections to uncover potential betting angles.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman (TOR) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)

Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Kevin Gausman brings a velocity-heavy approach to the mound with a well-defined arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.3 mph), Splitter (37% usage, 85.0 mph), Slider (8% usage, 82.8 mph), and a rarely used Sinker (0% usage, 93.7 mph). The Pirates lineup averages .236 this season but projects to a .249 xBA against Gausman's mix.

Paul Skenes (PIT):

Paul Skenes showcases a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 98.2 mph), Splitter (16% usage, 93.7 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 84.5 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 88.3 mph), Sinker (9% usage, 97.6 mph), Slider (7% usage, 85.1 mph), and Curveball (5% usage, 83.5 mph). The Blue Jays lineup, which typically hits .283, is expected to drop to a .274 xBA against Skenes' offerings.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Toronto vs Paul Skenes: The Blue Jays' lineup, averaging .283 this season, projects a slight decline to .274 against Skenes. Notable performance changes include:

Addison Barger: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .285 (+24 points), Season K% 25.6% → Arsenal K% 25.8% (+0.2%)
George Springer: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .268 (-22 points), Season K% 18.7% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+3.6%)

For Pittsburgh vs Kevin Gausman: The Pirates' lineup averages .236 but sees a projected boost to .249 against Gausman. Key performance deviations:

Tommy Pham: Season BA .259 → xBA vs arsenal .363 (+104 points), Season K% 22.3% → Arsenal K% 17.7% (-4.6%)
Henry Davis: Season BA .258 → xBA vs arsenal .130 (-128 points), Season K% 26.6% → Arsenal K% 45.6% (+19.0%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Toronto: The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Skenes—up 2.3% from their 17.9% season average.
Pittsburgh: The Pirates' projected K-rate is 27.8% vs Gausman—up 5.5% from their 22.3% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Tommy Pham (.259 → .363, +104 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER - Pittsburgh's K-rate jumps to 27.8% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Player Advantage: Tommy Pham exhibits a substantial increase in projected batting average.
Pitcher Prop Opportunity: Kevin Gausman sees a significant increase in K-rate against the Pirates' lineup.
Umpire Impact: Umpire assignment is pending, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall Recommendation: Lean towards betting on Pham's batting over and Gausman's strikeout over.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Toronto vs Pittsburgh game? A: Tommy Pham meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .363.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is currently TBA, increasing prop volatility.

Q: What time is the Toronto vs Pittsburgh game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/18, 06:40PM.

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