Game Time: 7/29, 12:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Toronto Blue Jays travel to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in a crucial matchup with playoff implications. DraftKings lists the Orioles as a -137 favorite, while the Blue Jays are +112 underdogs, despite 88% of the money backing Toronto. This game showcases a compelling pitching duel and lineup dynamics that could sway the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Paxton Schultz vs. Charlie Morton
Paxton Schultz (TOR):
Schultz's arsenal includes a Four-Seam Fastball (36% usage, 93.8 mph), Cutter (29% usage, 88.9 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 86.4 mph), Slider (15% usage, 85.4 mph), and a rarely used Sinker (0% usage, 94.3 mph). Known for his mix of pitches, Schultz can keep hitters guessing, but the Orioles lineup could exploit his velocity. The Baltimore lineup averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .261 against Schultz's offerings, suggesting a slight edge for Baltimore's hitters.
Charlie Morton (BAL):
Morton relies heavily on his Curveball (39% usage, 81.4 mph) complemented by a Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 94.2 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 94.0 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.5 mph), and Cutter (7% usage, 88.4 mph). His diverse pitch mix could challenge Toronto’s lineup, which averages .275 this season but projects to a similar .275 against Morton's arsenal, indicating a balanced matchup with no clear advantage.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup averages .275 this season but projects to maintain a .275 against Morton's pitching style. Will Wagner shows the biggest increase with a season BA of .243 improving dramatically to a .369 xBA against Morton's mix, a notable +126 point shift, and a modest K% increase from 20.17% to 21.0%. Addison Barger, however, experiences a steep decline from .268 to .211, down 57 points with a jump in K% from 24.43% to 30.6%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Orioles lineup, while averaging .240 this season, sees a boost to a projected .261 against Schultz. Tyler O'Neill demonstrates the most significant xBA improvement from .214 to .296, an +82 point increase, with a slight K% reduction from 24.14% to 23.0%. Conversely, Ramon Laureano's xBA drops from .275 to .245, a 30 point decrease, with K% rising from 25.09% to 30.3%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.27% vs. Morton — up 0.03% from their 17.24% season average, suggesting minimal impact on strikeout potential. Meanwhile, the Orioles' projected K-rate drops to 22.61% against Schultz, down from a 23.36% season average, indicating a potential contact advantage for Baltimore.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Will Wagner's xBA of .369 against Charlie Morton's arsenal is significantly above the .300 threshold with a +126 point boost, making him a potential lean for batter props. None of the other Blue Jays or Orioles players meet the .300 xBA and +20 boost criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No significant strikeout prop leans emerge as both teams’ K% projections do not exceed the 25% threshold with a sufficient increase.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Will Wagner - his .369 xBA against Morton's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +126 point boost.
