Game Time: 7/30, 12:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Baltimore Orioles in an intriguing matchup. Both teams bring a mix of dynamic hitting and strategic pitching to the table. Betting odds are not available for this game, making it essential to scrutinize the data-driven insights for betting opportunities.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: José Berríos vs. Dean Kremer
José Berríos (TOR):
José Berríos' arsenal is highlighted by a Sinker (32% usage, 92.1 mph), Slurve (27% usage, 82.6 mph), Four-Seam (19% usage, 93.0 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 85.4 mph), and Cutter (6% usage, 89.6 mph). As a pitcher who relies on a varied mix of pitches, Berríos can adjust his approach according to the hitter. The Orioles lineup averages .247 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Berríos' arsenal, indicating a slight edge in favor of the pitcher.
Dean Kremer (BAL):
Dean Kremer features a mix of pitches including a Four-Seam (26% usage, 93.3 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 87.0 mph), Splitter (20% usage, 82.0 mph), Sinker (20% usage, 92.9 mph), and Curveball (15% usage, 78.5 mph). The Blue Jays lineup averages .277 this season with a projected xBA of .275 against Kremer’s arsenal, suggesting a competitive matchup with no clear advantage.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup averages .277 this season but projects to .275 against Kremer's arsenal. Jr. Guerrero shows the biggest increase, going from a season BA of .293 to an xBA of .322 (+29 points), while Tyler Heineman sees the biggest decrease, from a season BA of .343 to an xBA of .221 (-122 points).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Orioles lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .254 against Berríos' arsenal. Jordan Westburg sees the biggest increase, from a season BA of .269 to an xBA of .330 (+61 points), while Adley Rutschman has the biggest decrease, from a season BA of .235 to an xBA of .200 (-35 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 16.9% vs. Kremer, up 0.3% from their 16.6% season average, suggesting minimal change. The Orioles' projected K-rate is 23.3% vs. Berríos, up 0.6% from their 22.7% season average, indicating a slight increase in strikeout potential.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Addison Barger (.267 → .317, +50) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Jordan Westburg (.269 → .330, +61) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Gunnar Henderson (.283 → .322, +39) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Tyler O'Neill (.218 → .253, +35) = NO LEAN ❌ (.253 < .300)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team's K-rate changes significantly enough to suggest a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Addison Barger - his .317 xBA against Kremer's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +50 point boost. Additionally, Jordan Westburg presents a strong play with a .330 xBA against Berríos, exceeding our criteria.
