Game Time: 7/29, 12:35PM
1. Brief Intro
The Toronto Blue Jays face off against the Baltimore Orioles in a high-stakes matchup. DraftKings lists the Orioles as -137 favorites, while the Blue Jays are +112 underdogs. Notably, 88% of the money is backing the Blue Jays, indicating strong public confidence in Toronto pulling off the upset.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Eric Lauer vs. Charlie Morton
Eric Lauer (TOR):
Eric Lauer brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 91.7 mph), Cutter (22% usage, 86.5 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 75.3 mph), Slider (10% usage, 82.7 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 85.0 mph), and a rarely used Sinker. Lauer is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a variety of speeds and movements. The Orioles lineup averages .247 this season with a projected xBA of .261 against Lauer's varied arsenal, suggesting they may have some success at the plate.
Charlie Morton (BAL):
Charlie Morton counters with his Curveball (39% usage, 81.4 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (30% usage, 94.2 mph), Sinker (14% usage, 94.0 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 87.5 mph), and Cutter (7% usage, 88.4 mph). Morton's approach mixes power pitching with finesse. The Blue Jays lineup averages .281 this season but projects to a lower .271 against Morton's challenging mix, indicating potential difficulties.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup, with a .281 season average, projects to .271 against Morton's arsenal. The biggest increase in xBA belongs to Jr. Guerrero: Season BA .292 → xBA vs. arsenal .336 (+44 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 10.5% (-3.6%). Addison Barger sees the biggest decrease: Season BA .268 → xBA vs. arsenal .211 (-57 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 30.6% (+6.2%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Orioles' lineup averages .248 this season but projects to .261 against Lauer's offerings. Adley Rutschman shows the largest increase: Season BA .227 → xBA vs. arsenal .279 (+52 points), Season K% 16.3% → Arsenal K% 16.5% (+0.2%). Ramón Laureano experiences a slight drop: Season BA .275 → xBA vs. arsenal .268 (-7 points), Season K% 25.1% → Arsenal K% 29.4% (+4.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.1% vs. Morton — up 1.0% from their 16.1% season average. The Orioles' projected K-rate is 21.9% vs. Lauer — down 0.7% from their 22.5% season average. Lower K-rates suggest potential contact plays for both lineups.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jr. Guerrero (.292 → .336, +44) meets the criteria due to his xBA exceeding .300 with a +44 point boost. This positions him as a potential lean.
Myles Straw (.242 → .309, +67) also meets the criteria, with a significant xBA over .300.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team's projected K-rates meet criteria for a strong strikeout prop lean, as both remain below 25%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jr. Guerrero - his .336 xBA against Morton's arsenal is above our .300 threshold with a significant +44 point boost.
Additionally, Myles Straw's .309 xBA against Morton's arsenal supports a batting lean.
CRITICAL EXAMPLES:
Juan Soto (.263 → .369, +106) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Randal Grichuk (.235 → .278, +43) = NO LEAN ❌ (.278 < .300)
Player (.285 → .315, +30) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
Atlanta 23.4% → 27.6% K% (+4.2%) = LEAN OVER ✅ (meets both criteria)
