Game Time: 7/13, 04:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
Today's matchup features the Toronto Blue Jays visiting the Oakland Athletics in what looks to be an intriguing pitching duel. The Blue Jays are coming in as the favorites with a -144 line from DraftKings, while the Athletics are +118 underdogs, with a significant 87% of the money backing the Blue Jays.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: José Berríos vs. Jeffrey Springs
José Berríos (TOR):
Berríos brings a diverse pitch arsenal featuring a Sinker (31% usage, 92.2 mph), a Slurve (27% usage, 82.6 mph), a Four-Seam Fastball (19% usage, 93.0 mph), a Changeup (17% usage, 85.5 mph), and a Cutter (6% usage, 89.6 mph). This makes him a pitch-mix artist capable of keeping hitters off balance. The Athletics' lineup averages .261 this season and projects a .244 xBA against Berríos' varied arsenal, suggesting a potential advantage for the pitcher.
Jeffrey Springs (ATH):
Springs relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (42% usage, 90.5 mph), complemented by a Changeup (26% usage, 79.5 mph), a Slider (24% usage, 83.5 mph), and occasional use of Cutter and Sweeper (both 4% usage). This approach is typical of a pitcher who uses deception and change of speeds to get outs. The Blue Jays' lineup, which averages .278 this season, projects to hit .262 against Springs, suggesting he might contain the potent Toronto offense.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Toronto Blue Jays lineup averages .278 this season but projects to .262 against Springs' arsenal. This projection shows a slight downturn. Key performer Jr. Guerrero shows a notable increase: Season BA .277 → xBA vs. arsenal .327 (+50 points), Season K% 14.1% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (+2.1%). On the downside, Tyler Heineman has the largest drop: Season BA .329 → xBA vs. arsenal .197 (-132 points), Season K% 20.2% → Arsenal K% 22.8% (+2.6%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Athletics lineup, normally hitting .262, is expected to drop to .244 against Berríos. Shea Langeliers stands out with a positive outlook: Season BA .226 → xBA vs. arsenal .268 (+42 points), Season K% 19.5% → Arsenal K% 11.8% (-7.7%). Conversely, Jacob Wilson struggles against this arsenal: Season BA .334 → xBA vs. arsenal .237 (-97 points), Season K% 7.5% → Arsenal K% 20.0% (+12.5%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays’ projected K-rate is 18.6% against Springs, up 1.7% from their 16.9% season average, which suggests potential value in strikeout props for Springs. For the Athletics, their projected K-rate drops to 20.6% against Berríos, down 2.3% from a 23.0% season average, indicating a potential contact play.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Looking at Toronto's lineup, Alejandro Kirk (.306 → .337, +31) and Jr. Guerrero (.277 → .327, +50) meet the batting lean criteria with xBAs over .300 and notable boosts, suggesting a potential lean towards both for player props.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Blue Jays’ strikeout rate against Springs (18.6%) doesn't meet the criteria for an OVER lean. The Athletics' reduced strikeout rate against Berríos (20.6%) also does not indicate a significant betting edge.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Alejandro Kirk and Jr. Guerrero from Toronto. Kirk's .337 xBA and Guerrero's .327 xBA against Springs' arsenal surpass our .300 threshold with substantial boosts of +31 and +50 points, respectively, indicating strong prop opportunities.
