Invisible Insider
July 12, 2025
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Jays at ATH MLB Betting Preview

Game Time: 7/12, 10:05 PM

1. Brief Intro

Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Athletics in a matchup that sees the Jays as a -157 favorite while the Athletics are a +128 underdog. With 55% of the money backing Toronto, bettors seem confident in the Jays' chances. This game presents intriguing angles, with the pitching duel between Kevin Gausman and Jacob Lopez likely to be a key factor.

2. Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Jacob Lopez
Kevin Gausman (TOR):

Gausman relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph) and Splitter (38% usage, 85.3 mph), complemented by a Slider (8% usage, 82.7 mph). His style is velocity-heavy with a devastating splitter that can decimate lineups. The Athletics lineup averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .227 against Gausman’s arsenal, indicating a tough matchup ahead for the home team.

Jacob Lopez (ATH):

Lopez mixes a variety of pitches, including a Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 90.7 mph), Slider (31% usage, 78.6 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.9 mph), and Changeup (13% usage, 82.9 mph). Although his fastball velocity is lower, his pitch mix could pose challenges. The Blue Jays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to a .279 xBA against Lopez’s arsenal, suggesting Toronto could find some success at the plate.

3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:

The Blue Jays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .279 against Lopez. Bo Bichette (.278 → .326, +47 points) and Alejandro Kirk (.306 → .331, +25 points) are expected to excel, while George Springer (.280 → .262, -18 points) could struggle more than usual.

For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:

The Athletics lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .228 against Gausman. Tyler Soderstrom (.263 → .287, +24 points) shows promise, whereas Miguel Andujar (.289 → .218, -71 points) is likely to face difficulties.

4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.96% vs. Lopez — up 1.07% from their 16.89% season average, suggesting a slight uptick in strikeouts. Conversely, the Athletics' projected K-rate is 36.01% vs. Gausman — significantly up 11.10% from their 24.91% season average, indicating a high strikeout risk.

5. Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean

Final Lean & Betting Takeaway

STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:

STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jr. Guerrero (.276 → .339, +63 points) and Bo Bichette (.279 → .326, +47 points) emerge as potential leans due to their xBA being over .300 with significant boosts.

STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Athletics' K-rate jumps to 36.01% against Gausman, up 11.10% from their 24.91% season average, making a strong case for leaning towards Gausman’s strikeouts OVER.

STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jr. Guerrero - his .339 xBA against Lopez's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +63 point boost. Additionally, Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER is a strong consideration, given the Athletics' projected K-rate spike.

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