Game Time: 7/12, 10:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
Tonight, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Athletics in a matchup that sees the Jays as a -157 favorite while the Athletics are a +128 underdog. With 55% of the money backing Toronto, bettors seem confident in the Jays' chances. This game presents intriguing angles, with the pitching duel between Kevin Gausman and Jacob Lopez likely to be a key factor.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Kevin Gausman vs Jacob Lopez
Kevin Gausman (TOR):
Gausman relies heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (54% usage, 94.5 mph) and Splitter (38% usage, 85.3 mph), complemented by a Slider (8% usage, 82.7 mph). His style is velocity-heavy with a devastating splitter that can decimate lineups. The Athletics lineup averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .227 against Gausman’s arsenal, indicating a tough matchup ahead for the home team.
Jacob Lopez (ATH):
Lopez mixes a variety of pitches, including a Four-Seam Fastball (37% usage, 90.7 mph), Slider (31% usage, 78.6 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.9 mph), and Changeup (13% usage, 82.9 mph). Although his fastball velocity is lower, his pitch mix could pose challenges. The Blue Jays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to a .279 xBA against Lopez’s arsenal, suggesting Toronto could find some success at the plate.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup averages .270 this season but projects to .279 against Lopez. Bo Bichette (.278 → .326, +47 points) and Alejandro Kirk (.306 → .331, +25 points) are expected to excel, while George Springer (.280 → .262, -18 points) could struggle more than usual.
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Athletics lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .228 against Gausman. Tyler Soderstrom (.263 → .287, +24 points) shows promise, whereas Miguel Andujar (.289 → .218, -71 points) is likely to face difficulties.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 17.96% vs. Lopez — up 1.07% from their 16.89% season average, suggesting a slight uptick in strikeouts. Conversely, the Athletics' projected K-rate is 36.01% vs. Gausman — significantly up 11.10% from their 24.91% season average, indicating a high strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Jr. Guerrero (.276 → .339, +63 points) and Bo Bichette (.279 → .326, +47 points) emerge as potential leans due to their xBA being over .300 with significant boosts.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Athletics' K-rate jumps to 36.01% against Gausman, up 11.10% from their 24.91% season average, making a strong case for leaning towards Gausman’s strikeouts OVER.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Jr. Guerrero - his .339 xBA against Lopez's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +63 point boost. Additionally, Kevin Gausman strikeout OVER is a strong consideration, given the Athletics' projected K-rate spike.
