Game Time: 7/11, 10:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Oakland Athletics, the betting lines from DraftKings suggest the Blue Jays as a -156 favorite with the Athletics at +128, backed by 91% of the betting money on Toronto. With Max Scherzer on the mound for Toronto and Luis Severino pitching for Oakland, both teams will look to exploit their opponents' weaknesses in this intriguing matchup.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs Luis Severino
Max Scherzer (TOR):
Max Scherzer's arsenal is composed of a Four-Seam Fastball (48% usage, 93.3 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 86.9 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 76.3 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 84.4 mph), Slider (9% usage, 85.4 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 86.6 mph). Scherzer is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a diverse pitch mix that can perplex hitters. The Athletics lineup averages .253 this season with a projected xBA of .238 against Scherzer's arsenal, indicating a potential advantage for the Blue Jays.
Luis Severino (ATH):
Severino relies on a Sweeper (26% usage, 84.7 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 95.8 mph), Sinker (23% usage, 95.6 mph), Cutter (17% usage, 92.9 mph), Changeup (6% usage, 86.5 mph), and Slider (4% usage, 87.1 mph). Known for his high velocity and aggressive style, Severino's approach could challenge the Blue Jays, who average .273 this season but project a .295 xBA against his arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup, with a season average of .273, projects to .295 against Severino's arsenal. Nathan Lukes shows the largest positive shift with a season BA of .276 moving to an xBA of .333 (+57 points), while George Springer shows a similar increase from .280 to .333 (+53 points). Will Wagner sees the biggest negative impact, with his BA dropping from .210 to .192 (-18 points).
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
The Athletics lineup averages .253 but projects to .238 against Scherzer's offerings. Tyler Soderstrom experiences the largest positive xBA change, from .257 to .291 (+34 points). In contrast, Zack Gelof faces the steepest decline, with his BA dropping from .250 to .142 (-108 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 16.1% against Severino — up 0.3% from their 15.8% season average, suggesting moderate strikeout potential. For the Athletics, their projected K-rate against Scherzer is 27.3%, a significant increase of 2.3% from their 24.9% season average, indicating a higher strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Nathan Lukes (.276 → .333, +57 points) meets the criteria for a lean, as his xBA is above .300 with more than a 20-point boost. George Springer also fits these criteria with a .280 → .333 xBA (+53 points).
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Athletics' projected K-rate of 27.3% against Scherzer, which is more than 25% and up by 2.3%, does not meet the criteria for a strikeout prop lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Nathan Lukes and George Springer - their .333 xBA against Severino's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with significant boosts of +57 and +53 points, respectively. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
