September 5, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Guardians vs Rays: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)

Last updated: September 05, 2025

Game Time: 9/5, 07:35PM

Game Preview

The Cleveland Guardians face off against the Tampa Bay Rays in a matchup that sees Tampa Bay as the favorite. According to DraftKings, the Rays are listed at -144, with a significant 89% of the money backing them. Meanwhile, the Guardians sit as +118 underdogs. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter matchups and potential prop betting opportunities.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Gavin Williams vs Griffin Jax

Gavin Williams (CLE):

Gavin Williams brings a velocity-heavy approach to the mound, featuring a diverse arsenal:

Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 96.6 mph)
Curveball (21% usage, 82.0 mph)
Sweeper (19% usage, 86.7 mph)
Cutter (15% usage, 91.8 mph)
Sinker (5% usage, 95.7 mph)
Changeup (0% usage, 87.6 mph)

The Tampa Bay lineup averages .246 this season with a projected xBA of .259 against Williams' arsenal.

Griffin Jax (TB):

Griffin Jax is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing his sweeper most frequently:

Sweeper (45% usage, 87.7 mph)
Changeup (23% usage, 92.2 mph)
Four-Seam Fastball (17% usage, 97.0 mph)
Sinker (11% usage, 96.4 mph)
Cutter (3% usage, 93.5 mph)
Curveball (0% usage, 86.0 mph)

The Cleveland lineup averages .222 this season but projects to .213 against Jax’s arsenal.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Guardians vs Griffin Jax:

José Ramírez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .320 (+70 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 16.9% (-5.6%)
Angel Martínez: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .194 (-56 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 28.4% (+5.9%)

For Rays vs Gavin Williams:

Hunter Feduccia: Season BA .132 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+155 points), Season K% 25.0% → Arsenal K% 21.3% (-3.7%)
Carson Williams: Season BA .253 → xBA vs arsenal .198 (-55 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 37.7% (+16.0%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Guardians' projected K-rate is 27.4% vs Griffin Jax — up 2.8% from their 24.6% season average.
The Rays' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Gavin Williams — up 1.4% from their 20.9% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: José Ramírez (.250 → .320, +70 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities were identified as none of the lineup increases met our threshold.

🔑 Key Takeaways

José Ramírez shows a significant advantage against Griffin Jax, making him a strong candidate for a batting prop.
Hunter Feduccia is another standout performer versus Williams, with a notable increase in projected xBA.
Umpire Position remains unknown, adding an element of uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall Betting Recommendation: Focus on individual batting props, particularly for José Ramírez, given the lack of clear team strikeout betting opportunities.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Guardians vs Rays game? A: José Ramírez is the standout prop option due to his significant increase in projected xBA against Griffin Jax.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so we cannot assess tendencies at this time.

Q: What time is the Guardians vs Rays game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/5 at 07:35PM.

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