Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Giants vs Diamondbacks: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)
Last updated: September 17, 2025
Game Time: 9/17, 03:40PM
Game Preview
The San Francisco Giants head to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in a matchup that promises intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics. Both teams will rely heavily on their starting pitchers, as evidenced by the lack of betting odds available for this game, indicating a tight contest with minimal edge for either side.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Justin Verlander vs Brandon Pfaadt
Justin Verlander (SF):
Verlander, a seasoned veteran, brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound:
- Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 94.0 mph)
- Slider (23% usage, 87.3 mph)
- Curveball (15% usage, 78.6 mph)
- Changeup (9% usage, 84.8 mph)
- Sweeper (7% usage, 80.6 mph)
- Sinker (0% usage, 93.3 mph)
His style is velocity-heavy, focusing on overpowering hitters with his fastball while mixing in a tight slider. The Diamondbacks lineup struggles slightly against pitchers like Verlander, projecting a .243 xBA compared to their season average of .250.
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ):
Pfaadt offers a balanced pitch mix:
- Four-Seam Fastball (24% usage, 93.6 mph)
- Sinker (24% usage, 93.1 mph)
- Sweeper (19% usage, 84.9 mph)
- Changeup (16% usage, 87.4 mph)
- Curveball (9% usage, 82.2 mph)
- Cutter (8% usage, 89.8 mph)
The Giants lineup, however, could face challenges, projecting a .237 xBA against Pfaadt’s array, down from their .240 season average.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For SF vs Brandon Pfaadt:
- The Giants lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .237 against Pfaadt.
- Biggest Increase: Casey Schmitt: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .286 (+46 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 22.6% (-1.5%)
- Biggest Decrease: Heliot Ramos: Season BA .260 → xBA vs arsenal .220 (-40 points), Season K% 23.1% → Arsenal K% 25.1% (+2.0%)
For AZ vs Justin Verlander:
- The Diamondbacks lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .243 against Verlander.
- Biggest Increase: Corbin Carroll: Season BA .258 → xBA vs arsenal .285 (+27 points), Season K% 24.0% → Arsenal K% 26.2% (+2.2%)
- Biggest Decrease: Adrian Castillo: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .168 (-73 points), Season K% 37.4% → Arsenal K% 44.8% (+7.4%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Giants’ projected K-rate is 24.0% vs Pfaadt — up 1.5% from their 22.5% season average.
- The Diamondbacks’ projected K-rate is 24.8% vs Verlander — up 2.1% from their 22.8% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup for strikeout props.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Casey Schmitt shows a notable increase in projected batting average, making him a standout prop candidate.
- Both lineups face higher strikeout risks, though not enough to justify strikeout props.
- Umpire details are unavailable, introducing uncertainty in prop bets.
- Overall, the game leans towards tight pitching dominance with limited scoring.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the SF vs AZ game? A: Casey Schmitt shows strong potential with a projected increase in batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, making it uncertain.
Q: What time is the SF vs AZ game? A: The game starts at 03:40 PM on September 17, 2025.
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