Game Time: 7/18, 07:07 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the San Francisco Giants take on the Toronto Blue Jays, the upcoming matchup features an intriguing pitching duel between Justin Verlander and Chris Bassitt. The Blue Jays are favored with odds from DraftKings setting Toronto at -143 and San Francisco at +118, with a significant 67% of the betting money backing the Blue Jays.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Justin Verlander vs. Chris Bassitt
Justin Verlander (SF):
Verlander's arsenal: Four-Seam (47% usage, 93.9 mph), Slider (24% usage, 87.5 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.6 mph), Changeup (9% usage, 84.8 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 79.9 mph). Known for his velocity-heavy style, Verlander’s fastball sets the tone. The Toronto lineup averages .281 this season with a projected xBA of .270 against Verlander's dynamic pitch mix.
Chris Bassitt (TOR):
Bassitt’s arsenal: Sinker (41% usage, 91.4 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 88.1 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 71.2 mph), Four-Seam (7% usage, 91.4 mph), Splitter (6% usage, 83.5 mph), Sweeper (6% usage, 72.7 mph), Slider (2% usage, 81.9 mph), Changeup (1% usage, 83.5 mph). Bassitt’s pitch-mix artistry might challenge San Francisco, as the Giants lineup averages .250 for the season but projects to .258 against Bassitt's repertoire.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Giants lineup season average is .250, with a projected .258 against Bassitt's arsenal. The standout performer is Casey Schmitt, who sees a notable boost: Season BA .254 → xBA vs. arsenal .321 (+67 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 17.9% (-6.5%). Dominic Smith, however, faces a decline: Season BA .323 → xBA vs. arsenal .279 (-44 points), Season K% 18.3% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (+2.7%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Blue Jays lineup averages .281 but projects to .270 against Verlander. Jr. Guerrero has the biggest increase: Season BA .277 → xBA vs. arsenal .326 (+49 points), Season K% 14.3% → Arsenal K% 15.0% (+0.7%). Conversely, Tyler Heineman sees the largest decrease: Season BA .329 → xBA vs. arsenal .222 (-107 points), Season K% 20.2% → Arsenal K% 25.5% (+5.3%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Giants' projected K-rate is 21.6% against Bassitt — down 1.4% from their 23.0% season average, indicating potential contact play. The Blue Jays' projected K-rate is 18.0% against Verlander — up 2.3% from their 15.7% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeout risk but not substantial enough for a prop lean.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Casey Schmitt (.254 → .321, +67 points) meets the criteria with an xBA greater than .300 and a boost over +20 points, marking a potential lean. No other batter meets both criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team’s projected strikeout rates exceed 25% with an increase over 4%, resulting in no valid strikeout prop lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Casey Schmitt - his .321 xBA against Bassitt's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +67 point boost. No strikeout prop meets our betting threshold in this matchup.
