Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Dodgers vs Rockies: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 18)
Last updated: August 18, 2025Game Time: 8/18, 08:40PM
Game Preview
The Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the Colorado Rockies in a highly anticipated matchup. The Dodgers are coming in as strong favorites with a -295 line, while the Rockies are significant underdogs at +232. A staggering 95% of the betting money is backing the Dodgers, reflecting their dominance in this matchup.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs Kyle Freeland
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 95.2 mph), Splitter (26% usage, 90.7 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 76.6 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 91.0 mph), Sinker (7% usage, 94.5 mph), Slider (3% usage, 86.0 mph)
Yamamoto is a dynamic pitcher with a velocity-heavy arsenal, highlighted by his four-seam fastball and splitter. The Rockies lineup has struggled against similar pitch types, projecting a .261 xBA against Yamamoto's mix.
Kyle Freeland (COL):
- Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (31% usage, 91.7 mph), Curveball (25% usage, 82.8 mph), Cutter (16% usage, 87.6 mph), Sweeper (14% usage, 83.8 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 91.4 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 86.4 mph)
Freeland offers a balanced pitch mix, relying heavily on his four-seam fastball and curveball. However, the Dodgers lineup, despite a .246 season average, projects a .242 xBA against Freeland's arsenal, indicating a slight disadvantage.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
Dodgers vs Kyle Freeland:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .246 this season but projects to .242 vs Freeland's arsenal.
- Biggest xBA Increase: Alex Freeland: Season BA .167 → xBA vs arsenal .195 (+28 points), Season K% 34.6% → Arsenal K% 28.6% (-6.0%)
- Biggest xBA Decrease: Alex Call: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .210 (-51 points), Season K% 16.0% → Arsenal K% 21.0% (+5.0%)
Rockies vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto:
- The Rockies lineup averages .271 this season but projects to .261 vs Yamamoto's arsenal.
- Biggest xBA Increase: Ezequiel Tovar: Season BA .270 → xBA vs arsenal .348 (+78 points), Season K% 23.2% → Arsenal K% 19.0% (-4.2%)
- Biggest xBA Decrease: Jordan Beck: Season BA .275 → xBA vs arsenal .220 (-55 points), Season K% 27.9% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+2.6%)
Strikeout Trends
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- Dodgers: The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 24.7% vs Freeland — up 1.6% from their 23.0% season average.
- Rockies: The Rockies' projected K-rate is 27.8% vs Yamamoto — up 3.7% from their 24.1% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ezequiel Tovar (.270 → .348, +78 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Yoshinobu Yamamoto strikeout OVER - Rockies' K-rate jumps to 27.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ezequiel Tovar presents a strong batting advantage against Yamamoto, making him a standout prop candidate.
- The Rockies show a significant increase in strikeout vulnerability against Yamamoto, suggesting potential value in strikeout props for the Dodgers' ace.
- Umpire assignment is uncertain, adding an element of unpredictability to the game.
- Overall, the Dodgers maintain a strategic edge in both pitching and lineup matchups, reinforcing their status as favorites.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Rockies game? A: Ezequiel Tovar is a standout candidate with a significant increase in xBA against Yamamoto's arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making this aspect uncertain.
Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Rockies game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/18, 08:40PM.
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