Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Dodgers vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 04)
Last updated: September 04, 2025
Game Time: 9/4, 06:40PM
Game Preview
Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in what promises to be an intriguing matchup at PNC Park. The Dodgers are the favorites, with DraftKings listing them at -126, while the Pirates stand as +104 underdogs. With 75% of the betting money backing the Dodgers, the pressure is on Pittsburgh to upset the odds.
Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell (LAD) vs Paul Skenes (PIT)
Blake Snell (LAD):
Blake Snell comes into this game armed with a diverse pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (44% usage, 95.2 mph), Changeup (23% usage, 85.6 mph), Curveball (21% usage, 80.5 mph), and Slider (12% usage, 88.2 mph). Snell's high velocity fastball and deceptive breaking pitches categorize him as a velocity-heavy pitcher. The Pirates lineup has a season average of .238 but projects to a slightly lower xBA of .234 against Snell’s arsenal.
Paul Skenes (PIT):
Paul Skenes offers a robust pitch variety: Four-Seam (39% usage, 98.2 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 84.5 mph), Splitter (14% usage, 93.7 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 88.5 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 97.7 mph), Slider (6% usage, 85.2 mph), and Curveball (4% usage, 83.6 mph). Known for his high-velocity arm, Skenes is a pitcher who relies heavily on speed and movement. The Dodgers lineup averages .241 this season, but their projected xBA dips to .248 against Skenes’ mix, indicating a slight edge for Skenes.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Dodgers vs Paul Skenes:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .241 this season but projects to .249 vs Skenes’ arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Mookie Betts: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .316 (+66 points), Season K% 10.1% → Arsenal K% 8.2% (-1.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .297 → xBA vs arsenal .270 (-27 points), Season K% 20.7% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (-5.1%)
For Pirates vs Blake Snell:
- The Pirates lineup averages .238 this season but projects to .234 vs Snell’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .244 → xBA vs arsenal .272 (+28 points), Season K% 27.2% → Arsenal K% 26.3% (-0.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .167 (-78 points), Season K% 28.7% → Arsenal K% 40.4% (+11.7%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 25.5% vs Skenes — up 1.7% from their 23.8% season average.
- The Pirates' projected K-rate is 28.3% vs Snell — up 3.7% from their 24.7% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
⚡ K Prop Alert: Blake Snell strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 28.3% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Mookie Betts shows a significant batting advantage against Paul Skenes, making him a prime candidate for prop bets.
- Blake Snell's strikeout potential is high against a Pirates lineup that struggles with his pitch mix.
- Without confirmed umpire data, betting on plate outcomes may carry added risk.
- Overall, focus on Betts' batting prop and Snell's strikeout potential for the best edge.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Pirates game? A: Mookie Betts stands out with a significant increase in expected batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leading to uncertainty in prop expectations.
Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/4, 06:40PM.
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