September 3, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Jake Turner

Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.

Dodgers vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 03)

Last updated: September 03, 2025

Game Time: 9/3, 06:40PM

Brief Intro

The Los Angeles Dodgers travel to face the Pittsburgh Pirates in a game where the Dodgers are heavily favored. According to DraftKings, the Dodgers are a -180 favorite, with 85% of the money backing them, while the Pirates sit at +147 underdogs. This matchup offers intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics that could swing betting outcomes.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs Braxton Ashcraft

Shohei Ohtani (LAD):

Ohtani brings a versatile arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam (36% usage, 98.2 mph), Sweeper (27% usage, 84.8 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.7 mph), Sinker (8% usage, 96.2 mph), Curveball (6% usage, 78.5 mph), Cutter (5% usage, 93.8 mph), Splitter (5% usage, 90.6 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, Ohtani’s mix keeps hitters guessing. The Pirates lineup averages .254 this season but has a projected xBA of .238 against Ohtani's varied arsenal.

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT):

Ashcraft relies heavily on power pitching with a Cutter (54% usage, 97.1 mph) and Slider (46% usage, 89.9 mph). The Dodgers lineup, averaging .264 this season, projects to a .243 xBA against Ashcraft's fast-paced pitches.

Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For LAD vs Braxton Ashcraft: The Dodgers lineup averages .264 this season but projects to .243 against Ashcraft's arsenal. Key performers include:

Biggest Increase: Teoscar Hernández: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .319 (+69 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 22.7% (+0.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (-94 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 15.7% (-5.4%)

For PIT vs Shohei Ohtani: The Pirates, with a season average of .255, project to a .238 xBA against Ohtani. Key performers include:

Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .245 → xBA vs arsenal .288 (+43 points), Season K% 27.1% → Arsenal K% 29.3% (+2.2%)
Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .252 → xBA vs arsenal .173 (-79 points), Season K% 27.6% → Arsenal K% 37.5% (+9.9%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 18.4% vs Ashcraft — up 0.7% from their 17.6% season average.
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 27.3% vs Ohtani — up 4.8% from their 22.5% season average, indicating a potential value in strikeout props.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Teoscar Hernández (.250 → .319, +69 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Shohei Ohtani strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 27.3% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Teoscar Hernández shows significant batting advantage against Braxton Ashcraft, making a compelling prop bet.
Shohei Ohtani's strikeout potential is heightened against a strikeout-prone Pirates lineup.
The absence of umpire data introduces volatility in betting props.
Dodgers are favored strongly, but specific player props offer value.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the LAD vs PIT game? A: Teoscar Hernández meets our strict betting criteria with a projected xBA of .319 against Ashcraft's arsenal.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, affecting prop volatility.

Q: What time is the LAD vs PIT game? A: 9/3, 06:40PM

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