Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Dodgers vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 02)
Last updated: September 02, 2025
Game Time: 9/2, 06:40PM
Matchup Setup
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates. With DraftKings setting the Dodgers as a -182 favorite and the Pirates as a +149 underdog, 90% of the betting action is backing the Dodgers. This game sets up as a classic battle of pitching prowess against an underdog looking to upset the odds.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs Carmen Mlodzinski
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Slider (41% usage, 85.7 mph), Four-Seam (35% usage, 89.0 mph), Curveball (18% usage, 72.3 mph), Splitter (6% usage, 83.2 mph), Sinker (0% usage, 89.3 mph) Kershaw is a pitch-mix artist known for his devastating slider and curveball that keep batters guessing. The Pirates lineup averages .224 this season with a projected xBA of .224 vs Kershaw's arsenal.Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT):
Four-Seam (37% usage, 96.0 mph), Slider (17% usage, 88.6 mph), Sinker (15% usage, 95.7 mph), Changeup (14% usage, 87.5 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 83.9 mph), Curveball (5% usage, 84.7 mph), Cutter (0% usage, 94.9 mph) Mlodzinski brings a velocity-heavy approach with a robust four-seam and a diverse secondary pitch mix. The Dodgers lineup averages .252 this season but projects a .253 vs Mlodzinski's arsenal.Hitting Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For LAD vs Carmen Mlodzinski:
- The Dodgers lineup averages .262 this season but projects to .253 vs Mlodzinski's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Michael Conforto: Season BA .190 → xBA vs arsenal .247 (+57 points), Season K% 24.9% → Arsenal K% 24.6% (-0.3%)
- Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .277 (-23 points), Season K% 21.1% → Arsenal K% 14.9% (-6.2%)
For PIT vs Clayton Kershaw:
- The Pirates lineup averages .239 this season but projects to .224 vs Kershaw's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Jared Triolo: Season BA .221 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (+37 points), Season K% 19.3% → Arsenal K% 23.1% (+3.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Nick Gonzales: Season BA .279 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (-50 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 22.3% (+4.4%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- LAD's projected K-rate is 23.3% vs Mlodzinski — down 0.1% from their 23.4% season average.
- PIT's projected K-rate is 30.8% vs Kershaw — up 6.2% from their 24.6% season average.
Umpire Impact
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Michael Conforto (.190 → .247, +57 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Clayton Kershaw strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 30.8% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Michael Conforto stands out with a significant xBA increase, marking him as a potential batting prop target.
- Clayton Kershaw's matchup presents a strong strikeout opportunity against a Pirates lineup with a significant K-rate increase.
- Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding an element of volatility to prop bets.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the LAD vs PIT game? A: Michael Conforto shows a significant increase in xBA and meets our strict betting criteria.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving prop volatility concerns.
Q: What time is the LAD vs PIT game? A: 9/2, 06:40PM
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