September 7, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Dodgers vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 07)

Last updated: September 07, 2025

Game Time: 9/7, 01:35PM

Today's Setup

The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. With the Dodgers favored at -164 according to DraftKings and 87% of the money backing them, the Orioles stand as +134 underdogs, setting the stage for a high-stakes clash.

Pitching Preview

Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs Tomoyuki Sugano

Clayton Kershaw (LAD):

Arsenal: Slider (42% usage, 85.7 mph); Four-Seam (34% usage, 89.0 mph); Curveball (18% usage, 72.2 mph); Splitter (6% usage, 83.1 mph)
Interpretation: Kershaw relies heavily on his slider and four-seam fastball, combining velocity with movement to confound hitters.
Matchup Insight: The Orioles lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .233 against Kershaw's pitch mix, indicating a challenging day at the plate.

Tomoyuki Sugano (BAL):

Arsenal: Splitter (24% usage, 87.3 mph); Four-Seam (19% usage, 92.6 mph); Sweeper (19% usage, 83.6 mph); Sinker (15% usage, 92.8 mph); Cutter (13% usage, 88.1 mph); Curveball (10% usage, 78.2 mph)
Interpretation: Sugano is a pitch-mix artist, utilizing a diverse range of pitches to keep batters guessing.
Matchup Insight: The Dodgers lineup averages .241 this season but projects to .252 against Sugano's arsenal, signaling a slight edge for the Dodgers' hitters.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

Dodgers vs Tomoyuki Sugano:

Team Average Comparison: The Dodgers lineup, averaging .241 this season, is expected to improve slightly to .252 against Sugano.

- Biggest Increase: Mookie Betts: Season BA .250 → xBA vs Sugano .312 (+62 points), Season K% 10.0% → Arsenal K% 7.0% (-3.0%) - Biggest Decrease: Freddie Freeman: Season BA .296 → xBA vs Sugano .251 (-45 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 16.6% (-4.0%)

Orioles vs Clayton Kershaw:

Team Average Comparison: The Orioles lineup, averaging .256 this season, projects to drop to .233 against Kershaw.

- Biggest Increase: Jackson Holliday: Season BA .248 → xBA vs Kershaw .268 (+20 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 22.0% (+0.3%) - Biggest Decrease: Dylan Beavers: Season BA .302 → xBA vs Kershaw .168 (-134 points), Season K% 27.7% → Arsenal K% 46.3% (+18.6%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Dodgers' Projected K-rate: 21.6% vs Sugano — up 0.6% from their 21.0% season average.
Orioles' Projected K-rate: 28.7% vs Kershaw — up 4.4% from their 24.3% season average.

Behind the Plate

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Mookie Betts (.250 → .312, +62 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Clayton Kershaw strikeout OVER - Orioles' K-rate jumps to 28.7% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Mookie Betts shows a significant advantage against Sugano, making him a strong prop candidate.
Clayton Kershaw's matchup against the Orioles suggests a potential strikeout bonanza.
Umpire data is unavailable, adding uncertainty to prop volatility.
Overall, the Dodgers hold the edge with both pitching and batting advantages.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Orioles game? A: Mookie Betts meets our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA boost.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, leading to uncertainty in prop betting.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/7, 01:35PM.

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