September 5, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Dodgers vs Orioles: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 05)

Last updated: September 05, 2025

Game Time: 9/5, 07:05PM

Today's Setup

Tonight, the Los Angeles Dodgers head to Baltimore to take on the Orioles in what promises to be a thrilling matchup. The Dodgers, favored at -169, are backed by 92% of the betting money, while the Orioles are considered a +138 underdog according to DraftKings. With two compelling pitchers on the mound, this game offers intriguing betting angles for sharp bettors.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow (LAD) vs Dean Kremer (BAL)

Tyler Glasnow (LAD):

Glasnow brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 95.8 mph), Slider (23% usage, 89.3 mph), Curveball (21% usage, 82.3 mph), and Sinker (18% usage, 96.1 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, he leverages speed and movement to dominate the strike zone. The Orioles lineup averages .249 this season, with a projected xBA of .249 against Glasnow's pitches, indicating a neutral matchup.

Dean Kremer (BAL):

Kremer's pitch mix consists of a Four-Seam Fastball (27% usage, 93.3 mph), Cutter (21% usage, 86.9 mph), Splitter (21% usage, 81.9 mph), Sinker (19% usage, 92.8 mph), Curveball (13% usage, 78.3 mph), and a rarely used Slider. The Dodgers lineup, boasting a season average of .251, projects to a higher .260 xBA against Kremer's offerings, suggesting potential vulnerability to LA's bats.

Batting Edges vs Arsenal

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Dodgers vs Dean Kremer:

The Dodgers lineup averages .251 this season, projecting to .260 vs Kremer's arsenal.
Mookie Betts exhibits the biggest positive adjustment: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .325 (+75 points), Season K% 10.0% → Arsenal K% 7.1% (-2.9%).
Freddie Freeman sees the largest drop: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .227 (-67 points), Season K% 20.7% → Arsenal K% 13.3% (-7.4%).

For Orioles vs Tyler Glasnow:

The Orioles lineup averages .249 this season, slightly decreasing to .249 vs Glasnow's arsenal.
Samuel Basallo shows the most significant improvement: Season BA .200 → xBA vs arsenal .296 (+96 points), Season K% 21.8% → Arsenal K% 28.2% (+6.4%).
Dylan Beavers faces the toughest challenge: Season BA .314 → xBA vs arsenal .201 (-113 points), Season K% 26.2% → Arsenal K% 39.7% (+13.5%).

Whiff Outlook

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Kremer — down 1.3% from their 21.5% season average, indicating less strikeout risk.
The Orioles' projected K-rate is 26.6% vs Glasnow — up 2.5% from their 24.1% season average, suggesting higher strikeout potential.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Mookie Betts (.250 → .325, +75 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: No significant strikeout prop opportunities as criteria were not met in this matchup.

🔑 Key Takeaways

Mookie Betts shines as a batting prop candidate with a significant xBA increase against Dean Kremer.
Samuel Basallo of the Orioles could surprise with a notable xBA boost versus Glasnow.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, creating uncertainty in betting lines.
With no standout strikeout prop, focus remains on batting edges.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Orioles game? A: Mookie Betts is the standout prop candidate, with a notable increase in xBA against Dean Kremer.

Q: Is [Umpire Name] a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving us without specific tendencies for this game.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Orioles game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/5, 07:05PM.

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