September 26, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: Ryan Chen

Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.

Dodgers vs Mariners: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 26)

Last updated: September 26, 2025

Game Time: 9/26, 09:40PM

Game Preview

In a compelling MLB matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers face off against the Seattle Mariners. According to DraftKings, the Mariners are favored with a -132 line, while the Dodgers are underdogs at +109, with 51% of the money backing Seattle. This game promises intriguing pitcher-batter dynamics and potential betting opportunities.

Mound Matchup

Pitching Matchup: Emmet Sheehan (LAD) vs George Kirby (SEA)

Emmet Sheehan (LAD):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 95.6 mph), Slider (30% usage, 87.8 mph), Changeup (17% usage, 86.2 mph), Curveball (6% usage, 77.9 mph)
Interpretation: Sheehan is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying on a dominant four-seam fastball complemented by a sharp slider.
Matchup Insight: The Mariners lineup averages .265 this season but has a projected xBA of .248 against Sheehan's arsenal.

George Kirby (SEA):

Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 96.2 mph), Slider (28% usage, 87.2 mph), Sinker (26% usage, 96.2 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 84.4 mph), Splitter (3% usage, 86.0 mph), Changeup (2% usage, 87.8 mph)
Interpretation: Kirby is a pitch-mix artist with diverse offerings, leveraging both velocity and movement.
Matchup Insight: The Dodgers lineup, which averages .247 this season, projects to a slightly improved .256 xBA versus Kirby's pitch mix.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Dodgers vs George Kirby:

Team Averages: The Dodgers lineup averages .247 this season but projects to .256 vs Kirby's arsenal.
Key Performers:

- Mookie Betts: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .298 (+36 points), Season K% 10.2% → Arsenal K% 9.8% (-0.4%) - Freddie Freeman: Season BA .293 → xBA vs arsenal .260 (-33 points), Season K% 20.6% → Arsenal K% 16.3% (-4.3%)

For Mariners vs Emmet Sheehan:

Team Averages: The Mariners lineup averages .265 this season but projects to .249 vs Sheehan's arsenal.
Key Performers:

- Jorge Polanco: Season BA .265 → xBA vs arsenal .287 (+22 points), Season K% 15.4% → Arsenal K% 15.6% (+0.2%) - Josh Naylor: Season BA .294 → xBA vs arsenal .233 (-61 points), Season K% 13.6% → Arsenal K% 17.4% (+3.8%)

Strikeout Trends

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

Dodgers: The team's projected K-rate is 21.0% vs Kirby — up 1.6% from their 19.3% season average.
Mariners: The projected K-rate is 24.6% vs Sheehan — up 3.8% from their 20.8% season average.

Umpire Impact

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Jorge Polanco (.265 → .287, +22 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Emmet Sheehan strikeout OVER - Mariners' K-rate jumps to 24.6% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Mookie Betts shows a promising batting increase against Kirby's arsenal.
Emmet Sheehan faces a Mariners lineup with a high projected strikeout rate, suggesting potential value on strikeout props.
Umpire details are pending, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Overall, Polanco and Sheehan provide the strongest betting angles.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Dodgers vs Mariners game? A: Jorge Polanco meets our betting lean criteria with a significant boost in xBA.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, and thus their tendencies are unknown.

Q: What time is the Dodgers vs Mariners game? A: The game is at 9/26, 09:40PM.

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