Game Time: 7/26, 07:15PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox in a prime-time matchup. DraftKings has the Red Sox as a -149 favorite, while the Dodgers are at +122 underdogs. With 62% of the money backing the Red Sox, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs. Garrett Crochet
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Slider (40% usage, 85.7 mph); Four-Seam (36% usage, 89.0 mph); Curveball (17% usage, 72.1 mph); Splitter (6% usage, 83.3 mph); Sinker (0% usage, 89.4 mph). Kershaw is a pitch-mix artist, relying heavily on his slider and four-seam fastball. The Red Sox lineup averages .257 this season with a projected xBA of .228 against Kershaw's diverse arsenal.
Garrett Crochet (BOS):
Four-Seam (40% usage, 96.2 mph); Cutter (29% usage, 91.1 mph); Sinker (13% usage, 95.6 mph); Sweeper (13% usage, 82.5 mph); Changeup (4% usage, 88.2 mph). Crochet is a velocity-heavy pitcher with a powerful four-seam fastball. The Dodgers lineup averages .261 this season with a projected xBA of .268 against Crochet's arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .268 against Crochet's arsenal. Teoscar Hernández shows the biggest increase in xBA: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .342 (+92 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 19.4% (-3.1%). Will Smith exhibits the biggest decrease: Season BA .323 → xBA vs. arsenal .272 (-51 points), Season K% 17.8% → Arsenal K% 21.4% (+3.6%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Red Sox lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .228 against Kershaw's arsenal. David Hamilton shows the biggest increase in xBA: Season BA .179 → xBA vs. arsenal .219 (+40 points), Season K% 23.3% → Arsenal K% 27.2% (+3.9%). Jarren Duran has the biggest decrease: Season BA .254 → xBA vs. arsenal .190 (-64 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 34.3% (+9.9%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 17.7% vs. Crochet — down 0.9% from their 18.7% season average, suggesting less potential for strikeout props. The Red Sox's projected K-rate is 24.7% vs. Kershaw — up 1.4% from their 23.4% season average, hinting at a potential strikeout prop value.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
While Teoscar Hernández (.250 → .342, +92 points) shows a significant increase in xBA, his projected xBA of .342 is above .300 and the boost is over +20 points, making him a potential lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Red Sox's projected K-rate doesn't meet the threshold for a strikeout prop as it is below the 25% necessary for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
"Our final lean would be on Teoscar Hernández - his .342 xBA against this arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +92 point boost." No significant team strikeout prop leans meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
