Game Time: 7/29, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Cincinnati to face the Reds in an intriguing matchup at Great American Ball Park. With the Dodgers positioned as a -154 favorite and the Reds as a +126 underdog per DraftKings, 58% of the betting money is flowing toward the Dodgers. This game offers unique betting angles, especially in the pitcher-batter matchups.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow vs. Nick Lodolo
Tyler Glasnow (LAD):
Glasnow brings a powerful arsenal to the mound with a Four-Seam Fastball (40% usage, 95.8 mph), Slider (22% usage, 90.0 mph), Curveball (20% usage, 82.2 mph), and Sinker (18% usage, 96.2 mph). As a velocity-heavy pitcher, his arsenal is designed to overpower hitters. The Reds lineup has averaged .248 this season with a projected xBA of .249 against Glasnow's mix.
Nick Lodolo (CIN):
Lodolo counters with a balanced pitch mix including a Four-Seam Fastball (28% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (28% usage, 82.0 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 87.8 mph), and Sinker (22% usage, 93.8 mph). Known for his crafty approach, the Dodgers lineup averages .264 this season but projects to a .250 xBA against Lodolo's repertoire.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup, averaging .264 this season, projects to .250 against Lodolo's arsenal. Notably, Michael Conforto stands out with a boost: Season BA .194 → xBA vs. arsenal .232 (+38 points), Season K% 22.8% → Arsenal K% 26.6% (+3.8%). Meanwhile, Will Smith sees a decline: Season BA .324 → xBA vs. arsenal .274 (-50 points), Season K% 18.1% → Arsenal K% 22.7% (+4.6%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .256 this season but drops to a .249 projection against Glasnow. Will Benson shows a significant increase: Season BA .212 → xBA vs. arsenal .276 (+64 points), Season K% 28.6% → Arsenal K% 33.3% (+4.7%). Conversely, Elly Cruz experiences a drop: Season BA .282 → xBA vs. arsenal .245 (-37 points), Season K% 24.6% → Arsenal K% 32.1% (+7.5%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.975% vs. Lodolo — up 3.18% from their 18.79% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeout potential. The Reds' projected K-rate is 25.911% vs. Glasnow — up 2.02% from their 23.89% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Upon review, none of the Dodgers batters have an xBA greater than .300 with a boost over +20 points. Will Benson for the Reds, however, does show potential with an xBA of .276, but it is still below the required .300 threshold.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither the Dodgers nor the Reds meet the criteria for significant strikeout prop leans as their projected increases in K-rates do not exceed 4% over a 25% threshold.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. We recommend monitoring prop lines closely as new information may emerge closer to game time.
