Game Time: 7/28, 07:10 PM
1. Brief Intro
In this compelling MLB matchup, the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the Cincinnati Reds. The Dodgers, currently favored at -172, have a strong backing with 74% of the money on them, while the Reds are positioned as +140 underdogs. Bettors should pay close attention to the pitching duel between Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Chase Burns, which could heavily influence the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Chase Burns
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD):
Yoshinobu Yamamoto brings a versatile arsenal to the mound with a Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 95.2 mph), Splitter (26% usage, 90.6 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 76.7 mph), Cutter (10% usage, 91.0 mph), Sinker (6% usage, 94.5 mph), Slider (3% usage, 85.9 mph), and Sweeper (0% usage, 84.2 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Yamamoto effectively utilizes his diverse repertoire to keep hitters off balance. The Cincinnati lineup averages .259 this season with a projected xBA of .237 against Yamamoto's arsenal.
Chase Burns (CIN):
Chase Burns is a power pitcher, leaning heavily on his Four-Seam Fastball (57% usage, 98.1 mph) complemented by a Slider (35% usage, 90.1 mph), Changeup (7% usage, 90.8 mph), and Curveball (1% usage, 83.4 mph). His velocity-heavy approach aims to overpower batters. The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season with a projected xBA of .263 against Burns' arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .268 this season but projects to .263 against Chase Burns' arsenal. Key performers include Shohei Ohtani, who shows a significant increase: Season BA .275 → xBA vs. arsenal .309 (+34 points), Season K% 26.1% → Arsenal K% 24.8% (-1.3%). Meanwhile, Will Smith experiences a decrease: Season BA .324 → xBA vs. arsenal .242 (-82 points), Season K% 18.1% → Arsenal K% 24.1% (+6.0%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Reds lineup averages .259 this season and projects to .237 against Yoshinobu Yamamoto's arsenal. Spencer Steer sees the largest decrease: Season BA .244 → xBA vs. arsenal .191 (-53 points), Season K% 23.4% → Arsenal K% 30.5% (+7.1%). No significant increases in xBA were noted for the Reds.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 20.1% vs. Chase Burns — down 0.8% from their 20.9% season average, indicating a potential contact play. Conversely, the Reds' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, up 1.1% from their 23.0% season average, hinting at a slight increase in strikeouts.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Shohei Ohtani (.275 → .309, +34 points) meets the criteria for a potential lean since his xBA is above the .300 threshold and the boost is significant. None of the other batters from the Dodgers or Reds meet the criteria for a batting lean.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
No team shows a K% > 25% with an increase > 4%, thus there are no clear leans for strikeout props in this matchup.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Shohei Ohtani - his .309 xBA against Chase Burns' arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +34 point boost. No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in strikeout trends for this matchup.
