Game Time: 8/1, 07:35PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers are set to face the Tampa Bay Rays in an intriguing matchup scheduled for 8/1 at 07:35PM. According to DraftKings, the Dodgers are favored at -148, while the Rays are +122 underdogs, with 82% of the money backing LA. As these teams clash, the pitching duel and lineup matchups will be crucial to the outcome.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs. Shane Baz
Clayton Kershaw (LAD):
Kershaw relies on a diverse arsenal: Slider (40% usage, 85.6 mph), Four-Seam (36% usage, 89.0 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 72.1 mph), Splitter (6% usage, 83.3 mph), and Sinker (1% usage, 89.5 mph). Known for his pitch-mix artistry, Kershaw faces a Rays lineup that averages .250 this season, with a projected xBA of .234 against his arsenal.
Shane Baz (TB):
Baz features a power-heavy arsenal: Four-Seam (45% usage, 96.8 mph), Curveball (28% usage, 84.7 mph), Changeup (12% usage, 89.4 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 89.3 mph), and Slider (4% usage, 86.7 mph). The Dodgers lineup, averaging .261 this season, projects to .265 against Baz's pitches, indicating a modest matchup advantage.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For LAD vs. Shane Baz:
The Dodgers lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .265 against Baz's arsenal. Key performers include Tommy Edman, who sees a significant xBA increase: .225 → .269 (+43 points), with a slight K% increase (16.9% → 18.5%). In contrast, Will Smith faces a decrease: .325 → .265 (-60 points), with his K% rising significantly (18.8% → 24.3%).
For TB vs. Clayton Kershaw:
The Rays lineup averages .250 this season but sees a drop to .234 against Kershaw's pitches. Brandon Lowe experiences a decrease: .272 → .229 (-43 points), with an increased K% (25.1% → 29.4%). Meanwhile, Jonny DeLuca shows a slight increase: .250 → .263 (+13 points), but not enough for a suggested lean.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 22.0% against Baz, up 2.0% from their 20.1% season average, indicating moderate strikeout potential. For the Rays, their K-rate jumps to 25.4% against Kershaw, up 3.4% from their 22.0% season average, suggesting increased strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No Dodgers or Rays batters meet the .300 xBA threshold with a boost above +20 points, thus no batting leans are suggested.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
With neither team's arsenal K% surpassing 25% with an increase over 4%, no strikeout prop leans are suggested.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
