Game Time: 7/12, 04:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers will face off against the San Francisco Giants in an intriguing division matchup. With the Dodgers being a -154 favorite according to DraftKings and 94% of the money backing them, this game carries significant betting interest. The Giants are considered +127 underdogs, setting the stage for a classic rivalry game under the California sun.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Shohei Ohtani vs. Landen Roupp
Shohei Ohtani (LAD):
Ohtani's pitching arsenal is impressive, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 98.4 mph), Sweeper (32% usage, 84.5 mph), Slider (11% usage, 87.5 mph), Sinker (11% usage, 96.6 mph), Splitter (5% usage, 91.9 mph), and Cutter (3% usage, 92.8 mph). This velocity-heavy approach will challenge the Giants' lineup, which averages .260 this season with a projected xBA of .246 against Ohtani's mix.
Landen Roupp (SF):
Roupp relies on a diverse mix, highlighted by his Sinker (40% usage, 92.7 mph), Curveball (37% usage, 76.6 mph), Changeup (16% usage, 86.7 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 90.3 mph), and Four-Seam Fastball (0% usage, 91.5 mph). The Dodgers lineup, with a season average of .261, is projected to manage a .251 xBA against Roupp’s offerings.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .261 this season but projects to .251 against Roupp's arsenal. The biggest increase in xBA is seen with Tommy Edman: Season BA .234 → xBA vs. arsenal .293 (+59 points), Season K% 16.5% → Arsenal K% 16.3% (-0.2%). The biggest decrease is with Will Smith: Season BA .326 → xBA vs. arsenal .288 (-38 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 20.4% (+2.2%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Giants lineup averages .260 but projects to .246 against Ohtani’s arsenal. The largest increase is with Andrew Knizner: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .280 (+30 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 23.8% (+1.3%). The largest decrease is with Dominic Smith: Season BA .326 → xBA vs. arsenal .240 (-86 points), Season K% 18.2% → Arsenal K% 24.1% (+5.9%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.2% vs. Roupp — up 2.6% from their 18.5% season average, suggesting a slight increase in strikeouts. The Giants' projected K-rate is 24.8% vs. Ohtani — up 2.9% from their 21.9% season average, hinting at potential strikeout opportunities.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire tendencies, bettors should be cautious regarding prop bets that rely on strikeout or walk rates.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Despite Tommy Edman showing a notable increase in xBA, his .293 does not exceed the .300 threshold, so no batting leans meet the criteria.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Giants' projected K-rate of 24.8% vs. Ohtani does not meet the 25% threshold for a strikeout lean, and neither does the Dodgers' rate against Roupp.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup. While certain players show trends, the data does not meet the criteria for a clear betting lean.
