Game Time: 7/13, 04:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers head to Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants in a high-stakes divisional matchup. According to DraftKings, the Dodgers are favored at -144, while the Giants are underdogs at +118, with a significant 89% of the betting money backing the Dodgers. This game features intriguing pitching matchups and potential lineup advantages that bettors should consider.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Robbie Ray
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD):
Yamamoto utilizes a broad mix of pitches: Four-Seam (38% usage, 95.2 mph); Splitter (26% usage, 90.6 mph); Curveball (17% usage, 76.7 mph); Cutter (10% usage, 90.9 mph); Sinker (6% usage, 94.5 mph); Slider (3% usage, 85.9 mph); Sweeper (0% usage, 84.2 mph). His arsenal is diverse, allowing him to adapt to different hitting styles. The Giants lineup averages .240 this season with a projected xBA of .241 vs. Yamamoto's arsenal, indicating a slight disadvantage against his varied pitch repertoire.
Robbie Ray (SF):
Ray relies heavily on his Four-Seam (51% usage, 93.7 mph) and complements it with a Slider (23% usage, 88.1 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 85.1 mph), and Curveball (12% usage, 81.6 mph). The Dodgers lineup averages .269 this season but projects to .261 against Ray's arsenal, suggesting a potential challenge in matching their usual offensive output.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .269 this season but projects to .261 vs. Ray's arsenal. Shohei Ohtani shows a notable increase: Season BA .275 → xBA vs. arsenal .306 (+31 points), Season K% 25.2% → Arsenal K% 24.4% (-0.8%). In contrast, Will Smith displays a significant decrease: Season BA .328 → xBA vs. arsenal .254 (-74 points), Season K% 17.9% → Arsenal K% 23.9% (+6.0%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Giants lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .241 vs. Yamamoto's arsenal. Casey Schmitt exhibits the biggest advantage: Season BA .254 → xBA vs. arsenal .354 (+100 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 14.1% (-10.3%). Conversely, Willy Adames experiences a drop: Season BA .223 → xBA vs. arsenal .187 (-37 points), Season K% 26.3% → Arsenal K% 34.4% (+8.1%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 21.5% vs. Ray — up 4.6% from their 16.9% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props. Meanwhile, the Giants' projected K-rate is 25.4% vs. Yamamoto — up 2.5% from their 22.9% season average, indicating a moderate increase in strikeout likelihood.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire data, bettors should exercise caution regarding potential impacts on strikeout and walk rates.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Shohei Ohtani (.275 → .306, +31) = LEAN ✅ (meets both criteria)
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Dodgers' projected K-rate of 21.5% does not meet the >25% threshold for a strikeout prop lean. The Giants' projected K-rate of 25.4%, however, slightly exceeds the threshold but the increase is only +2.5%, not meeting the necessary +4% increase for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
"Our final lean would be on Shohei Ohtani - his .306 xBA against Ray's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +31 point boost. No significant team strikeout rate edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup."
