Game Time: 7/11, 10:15 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants face off in a highly anticipated matchup at Oracle Park. The Giants come into the game as -126 favorites, while the Dodgers are +104 underdogs according to DraftKings, with 80% of the betting action backing the Dodgers. With both teams looking to gain a divisional edge, the pitching duel between Dustin May and Logan Webb is set to be a pivotal factor.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs. Logan Webb
Dustin May (LAD):
Dustin May brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a Sweeper (42% usage, 85.2 mph), Sinker (38% usage, 94.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (15% usage, 95.3 mph), and Cutter (6% usage, 92.2 mph). May's style is velocity-heavy, relying on his sweeping breaking ball and power sinker to keep hitters off balance. The Giants lineup averages .252 this season, with a projected xBA of .242 against May's arsenal, indicating a challenging night for the San Francisco bats.
Logan Webb (SF):
Logan Webb counters with a sinker-dominant approach, featuring a Sinker (36% usage, 92.7 mph), Sweeper (26% usage, 84.8 mph), Changeup (21% usage, 86.6 mph), Cutter (9% usage, 91.1 mph), and Four-Seam Fastball (7% usage, 93.0 mph). Webb's mix of pitches is designed to induce ground balls and weak contact. The Dodgers lineup, which averages .272 this season, projects to hit .266 against Webb's offerings, suggesting they may have some success.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Dodgers lineup averages .272 this season but projects to .266 against Logan Webb's arsenal. Teoscar Hernández shows a notable increase in xBA, from a season average of .250 to .284 (+34 points), with a lower strikeout rate against Webb (22.5% to 19.4%, -3.1%). Conversely, Shohei Ohtani sees a decrease in xBA from .279 to .252 (-27 points), with an increased strikeout rate (25.2% to 27.1%, +1.9%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Giants lineup, averaging .253 this season, projects a .242 xBA against Dustin May. Matt Chapman stands out with an increase in xBA from .244 to .270 (+26 points), alongside a drop in strikeouts (23.5% to 19.3%, -4.2%). On the flip side, Jung Lee experiences a decline from .245 to .198 (-47 points) and an increase in K-rate (11.3% to 17.0%, +5.7%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Dodgers' projected K-rate is 20.0% against Logan Webb, a slight decrease from their 20.1% season average, indicating a potential focus on contact. Meanwhile, the Giants' strikeout rate is projected to rise to 23.8% against Dustin May, up from their 23.0% season average, suggesting potential value in strikeout props for May.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Among the Dodgers, Teoscar Hernández (.250 → .284, +34 points) shows potential but does not exceed the .300 xBA threshold. None of the Giants' batters meet the criteria of xBA > .300 and a boost > +20.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Giants' projected strikeout rate increases to 23.8% against Dustin May, but it does not exceed the 25% threshold needed for a lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
