Written by: Michael Rivera
Michael is a data-driven baseball enthusiast who specializes in pitch analytics and betting trends.
Diamondbacks vs Twins: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 13)
Last updated: September 13, 2025Game Time: 9/13, 07:10PM
Matchup Setup
The Arizona Diamondbacks are set to take on the Minnesota Twins in an intriguing matchup where the Twins are favored at -144, with the Diamondbacks as +118 underdogs. Despite the odds, 78% of the betting money is backing Arizona, indicating a potential upset. This game promises to be a fascinating contest with a lot of betting angles to explore.
Starting Pitching Analysis
Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson vs Joe Ryan
Ryne Nelson (AZ):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (62% usage, 95.6 mph), Slider (13% usage, 86.3 mph), Cutter (11% usage, 90.5 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 80.1 mph), Changeup (3% usage, 86.8 mph)
Ryne Nelson is a velocity-heavy pitcher, relying predominantly on his powerful four-seam fastball. The Minnesota lineup averages .242 this season with a projected xBA of .242 against Nelson's arsenal, indicating that they might handle his speed relatively well.
Joe Ryan (MIN):
- Pitch Arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (45% usage, 95.1 mph), Changeup (25% usage, 86.7 mph), Slider (17% usage, 89.0 mph), Cutter (7% usage, 91.5 mph), Curveball (3% usage, 80.7 mph), Sinker (2% usage, 94.8 mph)
Joe Ryan mixes power with finesse, using a diverse pitch mix. The Arizona lineup has a season average of .251 but projects to a .245 against Ryan's varied arsenal, suggesting some challenges in generating hits.
Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs Home Pitcher:
- The Diamondbacks lineup averages .251 this season but projects to .245 vs Joe Ryan's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Corbin Carroll: Season BA .254 → xBA vs arsenal .279 (+25 points), Season K% 24.3% → Arsenal K% 25.2% (+0.9%)
- Biggest Decrease: Blaze Alexander: Season BA .240 → xBA vs arsenal .193 (-47 points), Season K% 32.2% → Arsenal K% 28.1% (-4.1%)
For Home Team vs Away Pitcher:
- The Twins lineup averages .244 this season but projects to .242 vs Ryne Nelson's arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Kody Clemens: Season BA .202 → xBA vs arsenal .262 (+60 points), Season K% 23.6% → Arsenal K% 25.4% (+1.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Austin Martin: Season BA .290 → xBA vs arsenal .250 (-40 points), Season K% 16.1% → Arsenal K% 18.6% (+2.5%)
Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 22.0% vs Joe Ryan — up 0.5% from their 21.6% season average.
- The Twins' projected K-rate is 20.4% vs Ryne Nelson — up 0.7% from their 19.8% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Corbin Carroll (.254 → .279, +25 points) meets betting lean criteria!
📢 Prop Alert: Kody Clemens (.202 → .262, +60 points) meets betting lean criteria!
No significant strikeout prop edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Corbin Carroll and Kody Clemens show significant batting advantages against their opposing pitchers.
- No significant strikeout prop opportunities due to minimal increases against both pitchers.
- Umpire assignment is yet to be announced, adding an element of unpredictability to props.
- Consider backing the Diamondbacks' batters for potential value plays, given the betting money and key player advantages.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the AZ vs MIN game? A: Corbin Carroll and Kody Clemens meet our strict betting criteria with significant increases in xBA.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, affecting prop stability.
Q: What time is the AZ vs MIN game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/13 at 07:10PM.
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