Game Time: 7/29, 06:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
In a compelling MLB showdown, the Arizona Diamondbacks head to Detroit to take on the Tigers. The game presents a fascinating pitching matchup with Brandon Pfaadt for Arizona facing off against Casey Mize for Detroit. According to DraftKings, the Detroit Tigers are favored at -144, while the Arizona Diamondbacks are listed as +118 underdogs, with a significant 83% of the money backing the Tigers.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Brandon Pfaadt vs. Casey Mize
Brandon Pfaadt (AZ):
Pfaadt brings a diverse arsenal with a Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 93.6 mph), Sweeper (22% usage, 84.7 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 93.2 mph), Changeup (15% usage, 87.6 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 82.5 mph), and Cutter (4% usage, 90.1 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, Pfaadt's varied velocity can challenge hitters. However, the Detroit lineup averages .261 this season with a projected xBA of .268 against Pfaadt's diverse offerings, suggesting a potential for offensive success.
Casey Mize (DET):
Mize counters with a dominant Four-Seam Fastball (33% usage, 94.6 mph), supported by a Splitter (26% usage, 88.7 mph) and an array of breaking pitches, including a Slurve (16% usage, 83.2 mph) and a Slider (13% usage, 87.6 mph). The Arizona lineup struggles with a season average of .262 but projects to a mere .236 against Mize's repertoire, highlighting a potential pitching edge for the Tigers.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Diamondbacks' lineup averages .262 this season but projects to only .236 against Mize's arsenal. Geraldo Perdomo stands out with a significant increase in xBA, moving from a season average of .275 to .338 (+63 points), and a reduced K%, making him a key performer against Mize. Conversely, Alek Thomas experiences a substantial decrease, dropping from .244 to .142 (-102 points).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
Detroit's lineup, with a season average of .261, projects to .268 versus Pfaadt's pitching. Gleyber Torres showcases the biggest positive swing, improving from a season average of .276 to .304 (+28 points). On the downside, Riley Greene’s xBA falls to .241 from a season average of .274 (-33 points).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 21.8% against Mize, up 1.1% from their 20.7% season average, indicating a moderate increase. Meanwhile, the Tigers show a slight decrease in strikeouts, with their projected K-rate at 22.1% against Pfaadt, down 0.4% from the season’s 22.5% average. This suggests a balanced contact approach for Detroit.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without definitive strikeout or walk tendencies, bettors should approach prop markets with caution.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Geraldo Perdomo (.275 → .338, +63 points) presents a strong lean opportunity with a projected xBA well above the .300 threshold, offering a significant advantage against Mize's arsenal.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Neither team’s strikeout projection meets the criteria for a K-prop lean, as neither surpasses the 25% threshold nor shows an increase greater than 4%.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Geraldo Perdomo - his .338 xBA against Mize's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +63 point boost. No significant strikeout prop edges meet our criteria.
