Game Time: 7/25, 06:40 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a matchup that sees the Diamondbacks as -126 favorites, according to DraftKings. With 81% of the betting money backing Arizona, the Pirates stand as +104 underdogs. This game features intriguing pitcher matchups and lineup intricacies that could sway betting odds.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson vs. Mike Burrows
Ryne Nelson (AZ):
Ryne Nelson brings a velocity-heavy approach with a primary Four-Seam Fastball (63% usage, 95.5 mph), complemented by a Cutter (12% usage, 90.5 mph), Slider (11% usage, 86.0 mph), Curveball (10% usage, 80.7 mph), and Changeup (4% usage, 86.8 mph). The Pirates lineup averages .234 this season with a projected xBA of .244 against Nelson's arsenal.
Mike Burrows (PIT):
Mike Burrows features a balanced pitch mix with a Four-Seam Fastball (43% usage, 95.2 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 86.7 mph), Slider (20% usage, 86.1 mph), and Curveball (12% usage, 78.1 mph). The Diamondbacks lineup, averaging .253 this season, projects to a .251 xBA against Burrows' arsenal.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Arizona lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .251 against Burrows' arsenal. Jake McCarthy shows the biggest increase: Season BA .140 → xBA vs. arsenal .249 (+109 points), Season K% 16.2% → Arsenal K% 19.6% (+3.4%). Eugenio Suárez shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .250 → xBA vs. arsenal .226 (−24 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 31.5% (+9.0%).
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Pirates' lineup averages .234 this season but projects to .244 against Nelson's arsenal. Bryan Reynolds shows the biggest increase: Season BA .237 → xBA vs. arsenal .306 (+69 points), Season K% 27.2% → Arsenal K% 26.6% (−0.6%). Oneil Cruz shows the biggest decrease: Season BA .276 → xBA vs. arsenal .238 (−38 points), Season K% 24.4% → Arsenal K% 30.4% (+6.0%).
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 21.0% vs. Burrows — up 4.2% from their 16.8% season average, indicating a potential K prop value. Meanwhile, the Pirates' projected K-rate is 27.2% vs. Nelson — up 2.6% from their 24.6% season average, suggesting a moderate increase in strikeout risk.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batters from either team meet the criteria of having an xBA greater than .300 with a boost of more than 20 points.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
Arizona's projected K-rate against Burrows (21.0%) does not exceed the 25% threshold required for a lean. Pittsburgh's projected K-rate against Nelson (27.2%) does exceed 25%, but the increase is less than the required 4% from their season average.
STEP 3: Report findings
No significant statistical edges meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
