Game Time: 7/13, 04:07 PM
1. Brief Intro
As the Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Los Angeles Angels, both teams are looking to gain an edge in this crucial matchup. The pitching duel features Merrill Kelly for the Diamondbacks and José Soriano for the Angels. Betting odds are not available for this game, adding an element of unpredictability to this intriguing contest.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Merrill Kelly vs José Soriano
Merrill Kelly (AZ):
Kelly brings a diverse pitch arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam (26% usage, 91.9 mph), Changeup (26% usage, 88.3 mph), Cutter (20% usage, 90.7 mph), Sinker (12% usage, 92.3 mph), Curveball (9% usage, 81.9 mph), and Slider (6% usage, 85.8 mph). Kelly is a pitch-mix artist, relying on a varied attack to keep hitters off balance. The Angels lineup averages .267 this season with a projected xBA of .266 against Kelly's arsenal, suggesting a slightly favorable matchup for the Angels.
José Soriano (LAA):
Soriano is a power pitcher with a Sinker (50% usage, 97.0 mph), Curveball (26% usage, 85.1 mph), Four-Seam (8% usage, 97.6 mph), Slider (8% usage, 88.9 mph), and Splitter (8% usage, 91.9 mph). His high-velocity offerings can challenge hitters, but the Diamondbacks lineup, averaging .257 this season, projects to .246 against Soriano's arsenal, indicating potential struggles for Arizona.
3. Lineup Advantage vs Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For AZ vs José Soriano:
The Diamondbacks lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .246 against Soriano's arsenal. Jr. Gurriel shows the biggest increase, improving from a season BA of .251 to a projected .293 (+42 points), with a season K% of 13.9% dropping to 11.8%. Conversely, Alek Thomas experiences the largest decrease, dropping from a season BA of .248 to .171 (-77 points), with a slight K% increase from 25.6% to 26.2%.
For LAA vs Merrill Kelly:
The Angels lineup averages .237 this season and projects to improve to .266 against Kelly's arsenal. Mike Trout exhibits the most significant increase, jumping from a season BA of .236 to .311 (+76 points), though his K% slightly increases from 26.8% to 27.5%. Nolan Schanuel faces the biggest decrease, with his season BA of .278 dropping to .257 (-21 points), while his K% decreases from 12.0% to 10.6%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Diamondbacks' projected K-rate is 19.7% versus Soriano, up 2.3% from their 17.4% season average, suggesting caution on strikeout props. Meanwhile, the Angels' projected K-rate is 22.9% against Kelly, down 0.8% from their 23.7% season average, indicating a potential for more contact.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: Umpire Assignment
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Analyzing the key performers, Mike Trout (.236 → .311, +76) meets the criteria as his xBA surpasses .300 and shows a significant boost. This positions him as a potential batting lean against Kelly's repertoire.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
There are no significant strikeout rate changes that meet the criteria for a lean on either pitcher's strikeout props.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Mike Trout - his .311 xBA against Kelly's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +76 point boost. There are no viable pitching prop leans based on the current strikeout data.
