August 31, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Cubs vs Rockies: Betting Preview & Props (Aug 31)

Last updated: August 31, 2025

Game Time: 8/31, 03:10PM

Today's Setup

The Chicago Cubs face off against the Colorado Rockies in a compelling matchup at Coors Field. The Cubs are the favorites with DraftKings listing them at −247, while the Rockies are underdogs at +198. Notably, 85% of the betting public is backing the Cubs.

Starting Pitching Analysis

Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd (CHC) vs Tanner Gordon (COL)

Matthew Boyd (CHC):

Boyd employs a five-pitch mix with a focus on velocity and movement: Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.8 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.8 mph), Curveball (12% usage, 73.6 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph). This diverse arsenal makes him a pitch-mix artist, capable of keeping hitters off-balance. The Rockies lineup averages .265 this season with a projected xBA of .247 against Boyd's offerings.

Tanner Gordon (COL):

Gordon’s pitching arsenal is primarily built around his Four-Seam Fastball (41% usage, 91.3 mph) and Sweeper (31% usage, 80.7 mph). He also mixes in a Curveball (12% usage, 76.5 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 91.6 mph), and Changeup (6% usage, 84.4 mph). The Cubs lineup averages .254 this season but projects to a .253 xBA against Gordon's array, indicating a close matchup but slightly favoring the pitcher.

Hitting Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For Cubs vs Tanner Gordon:

The Cubs lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .253 against Gordon's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .234 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+46 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 22.0% (-0.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Matt Shaw: Season BA .227 → xBA vs arsenal .165 (-62 points), Season K% 19.4% → Arsenal K% 37.7% (+18.3%)

For Rockies vs Matthew Boyd:

The Rockies lineup averages .265 this season but projects to .247 against Boyd's arsenal.
Biggest Increase: Warming Bernabel: Season BA .252 → xBA vs arsenal .300 (+48 points), Season K% 16.7% → Arsenal K% 16.2% (-0.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Orlando Arcia: Season BA .297 → xBA vs arsenal .208 (-89 points), Season K% 13.3% → Arsenal K% 40.1% (+26.8%)

Lineup Strikeout Trends vs Arsenal

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 23.8% vs Tanner Gordon — up 3.8% from their 20.0% season average.
The Rockies' projected K-rate is 26.1% vs Matthew Boyd — up 4.1% from their 21.9% season average.

Plate Umpire Analysis

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.234 → .280, +46 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Matthew Boyd strikeout OVER - Rockies' K-rate jumps to 26.1% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ian Happ presents a solid betting opportunity with a significant xBA increase against Tanner Gordon.
Matthew Boyd might capitalize on a high strikeout rate against the Rockies.
Umpire assignment remains unknown, adding variability to prop bets.
Overall, the Cubs have a slight edge given the pitching matchups and betting trends.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Rockies game? A: Ian Happ stands out with a projected xBA of .280 against Tanner Gordon, making him a strong prop candidate.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, adding uncertainty to this aspect.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Rockies game? A: The game is scheduled for 8/31 at 03:10PM.

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