Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Cubs vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 21)
Last updated: September 21, 2025
Game Time: 9/21, 01:40PM
Game Overview
Today's matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds promises an intriguing battle of pitching and batting strategies. While betting odds aren't currently available, the game offers plenty of angles for analysis, focusing particularly on the pitching prowess of each team and the respective lineups' adaptability.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Jameson Taillon vs Andrew Abbott
Jameson Taillon (CHC):
Jameson Taillon brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with his pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 92.3 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.2 mph), Cutter (14% usage, 85.8 mph), Curveball (14% usage, 79.7 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 84.2 mph), and Sinker (7% usage, 92.3 mph). This mix classifies him as a pitch-mix artist, leveraging a balanced approach rather than relying solely on velocity.
The Cincinnati lineup averages .252 this season with a projected xBA of .243 against Taillon's arsenal, indicating a potential for reduced batting performance due to his pitch variety.
Andrew Abbott (CIN):
Andrew Abbott counters with his own set of pitches: Four-Seam Fastball (47% usage, 92.8 mph), Changeup (20% usage, 84.8 mph), Curveball (15% usage, 81.0 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 82.8 mph), and Cutter (4% usage, 88.6 mph). Abbott's preference for a high fastball usage suggests a velocity-focused approach.
The Cubs lineup, averaging .253 this season, projects to a slightly lower .249 against Abbott's arsenal, indicating a moderate challenge in adapting to Abbott's fastball-heavy strategy.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Cubs vs Andrew Abbott:
The Cubs lineup averages .253 this season but projects to .249 against Abbott's arsenal. Key performers include:
- Ian Happ: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .278 (+37 points), Season K% 22.2% → Arsenal K% 22.7% (+0.5%)
- Justin Turner: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (-47 points), Season K% 16.8% → Arsenal K% 20.0% (+3.2%)
For Reds vs Jameson Taillon:
The Reds lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .243 against Taillon's arsenal. Key performers include:
- Sal Stewart: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .295 (+45 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 28.0% (+5.5%)
- Elly Cruz: Season BA .262 → xBA vs arsenal .227 (-35 points), Season K% 26.0% → Arsenal K% 31.3% (+5.3%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 24.1% vs Andrew Abbott — up 4.1% from their 20.0% season average, indicating a potential strikeout prop value.
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 25.8% vs Jameson Taillon — up 2.2% from their 23.5% season average, suggesting a moderate increase in strikeouts.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.241 → .278, +37 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Andrew Abbott strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 24.1% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ shows a significant increase in projected batting average against Abbott, making him a standout prop candidate.
- Both teams' lineups face elevated strikeout risks, particularly the Cubs against Abbott's fastball-heavy approach.
- Umpire assignment is pending, adding an element of uncertainty to prop bets.
- Lean towards Ian Happ for batting props and consider Abbott for strikeout overs.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Reds game? A: Ian Happ is the standout betting prop, with a significant projected increase in batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, so we can't assess its impact yet.
Q: What time is the Cubs vs Reds game? A: The game starts at 9/21, 01:40PM.
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