Written by: Jake Turner
Jake is a veteran sports analyst with over 10 years of MLB prop betting experience.
Cubs vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 20)
Last updated: September 20, 2025Game Time: 9/20, 06:40PM
Today's Setup
As the Chicago Cubs travel to face the Cincinnati Reds, both teams aim to gain ground in their divisional standings. Despite the excitement of this matchup, betting odds are currently not available. However, the focus remains on the pitching duel and lineup matchups, which offer intriguing insights for bettors.
Pitching Preview
Pitching Matchup: Javier Assad vs Zack Littell
Javier Assad (CHC):
Assad brings a diverse pitch repertoire to the mound:
- Sinker (40% usage, 92.0 mph), Cutter (22% usage, 89.0 mph), Sweeper (13% usage, 80.8 mph),
- Four-Seam (13% usage, 92.2 mph), Curveball (6% usage, 76.7 mph),
- Changeup (4% usage, 85.5 mph), Slider (2% usage, 83.3 mph)
This mix classifies Assad as a pitch-mix artist who relies on varied velocities and movement to deceive hitters. The Reds lineup this season averages .251 but projects to a slightly better .255 xBA against Assad's offerings.
Zack Littell (CIN):
Littell's arsenal is similarly varied:
- Slider (28% usage, 87.3 mph), Splitter (28% usage, 83.5 mph),
- Four-Seam (23% usage, 92.2 mph), Sinker (16% usage, 91.5 mph),
- Sweeper (5% usage, 79.6 mph)
Littell's pitch mix suggests a balanced approach between breaking and fast pitches. The Cubs lineup averages .252 this season but projects a slight decline to .248 against Littell's arsenal.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cubs vs. Zack Littell:
- The Cubs lineup averages .252 this season but projects to .248 vs Littell's arsenal.
Biggest Increase:
- Ian Happ: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .267 (+24 points), Season K% 22.0% → Arsenal K% 23.3% (+1.3%)
Biggest Decrease:
- Nico Hoerner: Season BA .300 → xBA vs arsenal .264 (-36 points), Season K% 7.2% → Arsenal K% 9.6% (+2.4%)
For the Reds vs. Javier Assad:
- The Reds lineup averages .251 this season and projects to .255 vs Assad's arsenal.
Biggest Increase:
- Matt McLain: Season BA .223 → xBA vs arsenal .258 (+35 points), Season K% 28.4% → Arsenal K% 21.5% (-6.9%)
Biggest Decrease:
- TJ Friedl: Season BA .257 → xBA vs arsenal .252 (-5 points), Season K% 16.8% → Arsenal K% 13.4% (-3.4%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Cubs:
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Zack Littell — up 1.2% from their 21.0% season average.
For the Reds:
- The Reds' projected K-rate is 20.2% vs Javier Assad — down 3.1% from their 23.4% season average.
Behind the Plate
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Matt McLain (.223 → .258, +35 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Zack Littell strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 22.2% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ and Matt McLain are key players with notable batting advantages.
- Zack Littell presents a potential strikeout prop value given the Cubs' increased K-rate.
- Umpire assignment remains unannounced, adding uncertainty to prop bets.
- Overall, Matt McLain stands out as a viable batting prop option.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Reds game? A: Matt McLain meets our strict betting criteria with a notable xBA increase.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving tendencies unknown.
Q: What time is the Cubs vs Reds game? A: 9/20, 06:40PM
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