September 19, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Cubs vs Reds: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 19)

Last updated: September 19, 2025

Game Time: 9/19, 06:40PM

Matchup Setup

The Chicago Cubs are set to face off against the Cincinnati Reds in what promises to be an intriguing game with sharp betting angles. According to DraftKings, the Cubs are favored at -126, while the Reds are underdogs at +104, with a significant 78% of the money backing the Cubs.

Pitcher Breakdown

Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Nick Lodolo

Shota Imanaga (CHC):

Imanaga comes equipped with a diverse arsenal: Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 90.8 mph), Splitter (31% usage, 83.0 mph), Sweeper (16% usage, 80.3 mph), Curveball (2% usage, 71.6 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 88.3 mph). As a pitcher, he leans towards a mix-heavy approach, utilizing a variety of off-speed pitches to disrupt the batter's timing. The Reds lineup averages .258 this season with a projected xBA of .224 against Imanaga's pitch mix.

Nick Lodolo (CIN):

Lodolo features a balanced pitch mix: Four-Seam Fastball (29% usage, 93.7 mph), Curveball (28% usage, 82.0 mph), Changeup (22% usage, 87.9 mph), Sinker (21% usage, 93.8 mph). His arsenal is built on power and movement, particularly with the high-velocity sinker. The Cubs lineup averages .254 but projects to a slightly higher xBA of .260 against Lodolo's offerings.

Lineup Matchups

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Cubs vs Nick Lodolo: The Cubs lineup averages .254 this season but projects to .260 against Lodolo's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .243 → xBA vs arsenal .294 (+51 points), Season K% 21.8% → Arsenal K% 19.2% (-2.6%)
Biggest Decrease: Justin Turner: Season BA .305 → xBA vs arsenal .259 (-46 points), Season K% 16.8% → Arsenal K% 17.3% (+0.5%)

For the Reds vs Shota Imanaga: The Reds lineup averages .258 this season but projects to .224 against Imanaga's arsenal.

Biggest Increase: Sal Stewart: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .280 (+30 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 18.7% (-3.8%)
Biggest Decrease: Miguel Andujar: Season BA .312 → xBA vs arsenal .206 (-106 points), Season K% 14.0% → Arsenal K% 27.7% (+13.7%)

Contact vs Strikeout Profile

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.6% vs Nick Lodolo — up 2.7% from their 19.9% season average.
The Reds' projected K-rate is 26.4% vs Shota Imanaga — up 4.1% from their 22.3% season average.

Umpire Trends

Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.243 → .294, +51 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Shota Imanaga strikeout OVER - Reds' K-rate jumps to 26.4% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Ian Happ presents a strong batting prop opportunity against Nick Lodolo.
Shota Imanaga has a favorable strikeout prop potential with the Reds' K-rate projected to increase significantly.
The absence of umpire data adds an element of unpredictability to prop bets.
Overall, the Cubs have the edge both in pitching matchups and lineup performance projections.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Reds game? A: Ian Happ is the standout player, meeting our betting criteria with a significant projected increase in batting average.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment has not been announced, making it difficult to gauge tendencies.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Reds game? A: 9/19, 06:40PM

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