Written by: Ryan Chen
Ryan combines advanced statistics with traditional scouting to identify profitable betting opportunities.
Cubs vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 17)
Last updated: September 17, 2025
Game Time: 9/17, 12:35PM
Game Preview
The Chicago Cubs face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates in a pivotal National League Central matchup. According to DraftKings, the Cubs are the favorites with a −171 line, while the Pirates sit as the +140 underdogs, with 86% of the public money backing the Cubs. This game provides intriguing betting angles, particularly focusing on the pitching duel and lineup matchups.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs Johan Oviedo
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
Boyd brings a diverse arsenal to the mound, featuring a Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.3 mph), Changeup (24% usage, 78.7 mph), Slider (15% usage, 81.9 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.6 mph), and Sinker (4% usage, 91.9 mph). This pitch mix makes him a pitch-mix artist, capable of keeping batters guessing. The Pirates lineup averages .241 this season with a projected xBA of .254 against Boyd's diverse arsenal, indicating potential vulnerability to his off-speed offerings.
Johan Oviedo (PIT):
Oviedo counters with a robust mix, including a Four-Seam Fastball (38% usage, 95.3 mph), Slider (32% usage, 87.1 mph), Curveball (16% usage, 77.8 mph), Sinker (10% usage, 95.3 mph), and Changeup (5% usage, 88.1 mph). The Cubs lineup has averaged .246 but projects a slight dip to .245 against Oviedo’s arsenal, suggesting they might struggle to adjust to his velocity-heavy approach.
Lineup Matchups
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cubs vs Johan Oviedo:
- The Cubs lineup averages .246 this season but projects to .245 against Oviedo’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Dansby Swanson: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .272 (+22 points), Season K% 26.5% → Arsenal K% 29.1% (+2.6%)
- Biggest Decrease: Pete Crow-Armstrong: Season BA .248 → xBA vs arsenal .231 (−17 points), Season K% 24.1% → Arsenal K% 28.0% (+3.9%)
For the Pirates vs Matthew Boyd:
- The Pirates lineup averages .241 this season and projects to .254 against Boyd’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .241 → xBA vs arsenal .275 (+34 points), Season K% 27.2% → Arsenal K% 25.6% (−1.6%)
- Biggest Decrease: Nick Yorke: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .229 (−21 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 15.8% (−6.7%)
K-Risk Analysis
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
For the Cubs:
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 25.7% vs Johan Oviedo — up 4.1% from their 21.6% season average.
For the Pirates:
- The Pirates' projected K-rate is 22.7% vs Matthew Boyd — down 0.6% from their 23.3% season average.
Umpire Trends
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Bryan Reynolds (.241 → .275, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Johan Oviedo strikeout OVER - Cubs' K-rate jumps to 25.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Bryan Reynolds stands out with a significant batting advantage against Boyd, making him a strong prop candidate.
- Johan Oviedo’s pitching style could exploit the Cubs' increased strikeout tendencies, suggesting an opportunity for a strikeout prop.
- Umpire uncertainty adds a layer of unpredictability to the game, affecting the reliability of prop bets.
- Overall, this game presents notable edges for batter and pitcher props, particularly focusing on Reynolds and Oviedo.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Pirates game? A: Bryan Reynolds is the standout candidate, showing a +34 point advantage in projected batting average.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing potential volatility in prop outcomes.
Q: What time is the Cubs vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/17 at 12:35PM.
---
Want more of our best props and betting analysis? Click below and join insider bets!
---
