September 16, 2025

Game Preview

Written by: David Mitchell

David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.

Cubs vs Pirates: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 16)

Last updated: September 16, 2025

Game Time: 9/16, 06:40PM

Matchup Setup

As the Chicago Cubs take on the Pittsburgh Pirates, the betting landscape presents an intriguing angle with the Pirates favored at -133 and the Cubs standing as a +109 underdog. Interestingly, 66% of the money is backing the Cubs, indicating a strong belief in their potential upset.

Rotation Report

Pitching Matchup: Cade Horton vs Paul Skenes

Cade Horton (CHC):

Cade Horton offers a diverse pitching arsenal with a velocity-heavy focus: Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 95.7 mph), Sweeper (21% usage, 83.4 mph), Changeup (13% usage, 88.0 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 83.8 mph), Sinker (5% usage, 95.1 mph). Despite his power, the Pirates lineup has averaged .249 this season, but project to hit .234 against Horton’s mix, indicating potential struggles.

Paul Skenes (PIT):

Paul Skenes counters with a robust mix that features a high-velocity Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 98.2 mph), complemented by a Sweeper (16% usage, 84.5 mph) and a Splitter (14% usage, 93.7 mph). The Cubs lineup, which hits .250 on the season, projects a slight uptick to .261 against Skenes, suggesting they might fare better than the Pirates against Horton.

Offensive Breakdown

Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges

For the Cubs vs Paul Skenes: The Cubs’ lineup averages .250 this season but projects to .261 against Skenes. Key performers:

Biggest Increase: Moisés Ballesteros: Season BA .250 → xBA vs arsenal .334 (+84 points), Season K% 22.5% → Arsenal K% 12.5% (-10.0%)
Biggest Decrease: Nico Hoerner: Season BA .299 → xBA vs arsenal .277 (-22 points), Season K% 7.1% → Arsenal K% 8.5% (+1.4%)

For the Pirates vs Cade Horton: The Pirates average .250 this season but project down to .235 against Horton. Key performers:

Biggest Increase: Bryan Reynolds: Season BA .242 → xBA vs arsenal .296 (+54 points), Season K% 27.3% → Arsenal K% 25.8% (-1.5%)
Biggest Decrease: Henry Davis: Season BA .236 → xBA vs arsenal .167 (-69 points), Season K% 28.1% → Arsenal K% 42.6% (+14.5%)

K-Risk Analysis

Strikeout Risks & Rewards

The Cubs' projected K-rate is 22.2% vs Paul Skenes — up 1.4% from their 20.9% season average.
The Pirates' projected K-rate is 26.2% vs Cade Horton — up 3.8% from their 22.3% season average.

These increases suggest the potential for higher strikeout totals, particularly for Cade Horton against the Pirates.

Umpire Influence

Behind the Plate: TBA

Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. With no confirmed umpire, bettors should be cautious about interpreting prop outcomes.

What to Bet On

📢 Prop Alert: Moisés Ballesteros (.250 → .334, +84 points) meets betting lean criteria!

⚡ K Prop Alert: Cade Horton strikeout OVER - Pirates' K-rate jumps to 26.2% vs this arsenal!

🔑 Key Takeaways

Moisés Ballesteros shows a significant batting advantage against Paul Skenes.
Cade Horton has a favorable strikeout projection against a struggling Pirates lineup.
Umpire assignment remains uncertain, adding an element of risk to prop bets.
Overall, betting on Horton's strikeout potential and Ballesteros' batting prowess appears promising.

🧠 FAQs

Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Pirates game? A: Moisés Ballesteros emerges as a strong candidate with a significant increase in xBA.

Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, introducing potential volatility in strikeout and walk outcomes.

Q: What time is the Cubs vs Pirates game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/16, 06:40PM.

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