Written by: David Mitchell
David has been analyzing MLB matchups and umpire tendencies for professional bettors since 2018.
Cubs vs Braves: Betting Preview & Props (Sep 08)
Last updated: September 08, 2025Game Time: 9/8, 07:15PM
Matchup Setup
The Chicago Cubs face off against the Atlanta Braves in a pivotal matchup. DraftKings lists the Cubs as a -132 favorite, with 80% of the betting public backing them. The Braves come in as +109 underdogs, looking to upset the odds at home.
Mound Matchup
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs Bryce Elder (ATL)
Shota Imanaga (CHC):
Imanaga brings a diverse arsenal to the mound: Four-Seam (51% usage, 90.8 mph), Splitter (32% usage, 82.9 mph), Sweeper (15% usage, 80.2 mph), Curveball (2% usage, 71.6 mph), Sinker (1% usage, 87.8 mph), and Slider (1% usage, 81.4 mph). As a pitch-mix artist, he relies on precision rather than power. The Braves lineup averages .236 this season with a projected xBA of .236 against Imanaga's pitches.
Bryce Elder (ATL):
Elder counters with a sinker-heavy approach: Sinker (43% usage, 91.4 mph), Slider (36% usage, 84.3 mph), Four-Seam (11% usage, 92.5 mph), Changeup (11% usage, 86.5 mph). His strategy is to induce ground balls and weak contact. The Cubs’ lineup averages .249 this season but shows improvement with a projected xBA of .261 versus Elder's offerings.
Offensive Breakdown
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For the Cubs vs Bryce Elder:
- The Cubs’ lineup averages .249 this season but projects to .261 vs Elder’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Ian Happ: Season BA .237 → xBA vs arsenal .271 (+34 points), Season K% 21.7% → Arsenal K% 20.9% (-0.8%)
- Biggest Decrease: Carson Kelly: Season BA .256 → xBA vs arsenal .244 (-12 points), Season K% 17.5% → Arsenal K% 13.1% (-4.4%)
For the Braves vs Shota Imanaga:
- The Braves lineup averages .249 this season but projects to a lower .236 vs Imanaga’s arsenal.
- Biggest Increase: Sean Murphy: Season BA .199 → xBA vs arsenal .246 (+47 points), Season K% 31.2% → Arsenal K% 33.9% (+2.7%)
- Biggest Decrease: Jurickson Profar: Season BA .261 → xBA vs arsenal .187 (-74 points), Season K% 15.5% → Arsenal K% 24.5% (+8.9%)
Whiff Outlook
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
- The Cubs' projected K-rate is 20.5% vs Elder — down 0.6% from their 21.1% season average.
- The Braves' projected K-rate is 26.7% vs Imanaga — up 3.7% from their 23.0% season average.
Plate Umpire Analysis
Behind the Plate: Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
What to Bet On
📢 Prop Alert: Ian Happ (.237 → .271, +34 points) meets betting lean criteria!
⚡ K Prop Alert: Shota Imanaga strikeout OVER - Braves' K-rate jumps to 26.7% vs this arsenal!
🔑 Key Takeaways
- Ian Happ stands out as a strong batting prop due to his projected 34-point boost in xBA.
- Shota Imanaga presents a compelling strikeout opportunity against a Braves lineup with a heightened K-rate.
- Umpire undecided, influencing betting volatility and making in-game adjustments crucial.
- Cubs hold a slight edge in the pitching matchup, with strong public backing.
🧠 FAQs
Q: Who is the best betting prop for the Cubs vs Braves game? A: Ian Happ meets our strict betting criteria with a significant xBA increase against Bryce Elder’s arsenal.
Q: Is the umpire a pitcher-friendly umpire? A: Umpire assignment is TBA, leaving tendencies unknown and adding uncertainty to prop bets.
Q: What time is the Cubs vs Braves game? A: The game is scheduled for 9/8, 07:15PM.
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