Game Time: 7/12, 01:05 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Chicago Cubs travel to Yankee Stadium to take on the New York Yankees in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. DraftKings has the Yankees as a -164 favorite, while the Cubs come in as +134 underdogs, with 60% of the money backing the Yankees. This clash features a fascinating pitching duel and lineup considerations that could sway bettors.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Matthew Boyd vs. Max Fried
Matthew Boyd (CHC):
Boyd brings a diverse arsenal to the mound with a primary reliance on his Four-Seam Fastball (46% usage, 93.2 mph), complemented by a Changeup (23% usage, 78.9 mph), Slider (16% usage, 81.6 mph), Curveball (11% usage, 73.7 mph), and a Sinker (4% usage, 91.8 mph). He's a velocity-heavy pitcher with a mix of off-speed offerings aimed at keeping hitters off-balance. The Yankees lineup averages .247 this season, with a projected xBA of .247 against Boyd's arsenal, indicating a potentially even matchup.
Max Fried (NYY):
Fried offers a complex pitch mix, featuring a Cutter (31% usage, 93.6 mph), Sinker (17% usage, 93.8 mph), Curveball (17% usage, 75.5 mph), Four-Seam Fastball (12% usage, 95.5 mph), Sweeper (12% usage, 80.8 mph), Changeup (10% usage, 84.7 mph), and Slider (2% usage, 85.2 mph). The Cubs lineup, which averages .262 this season, projects to an improved .278 xBA against Fried's offerings, suggesting they might find some success at the plate.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cubs lineup averages .262 this season, projecting to a .278 xBA versus Fried's arsenal. Ian Happ stands out with a significant boost, hitting .223 on the season but projecting to .301 against Fried's mix, a notable +77 point increase, with a K% dropping from 22.8% to 18.6%. Conversely, Kyle Tucker sees a decrease, moving from a .284 season average to a .237 xBA, a drop of 47 points, with an increase in K% from 13.9% to 16.9%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup has a season average of .252, with a projected xBA of .247 against Boyd. Paul Goldschmidt shows potential with a season BA of .289 improving to .317, up by 27 points, although his K% slightly increases from 16.6% to 17.6%. Aaron Judge, however, faces a challenging matchup, with his BA dropping from .355 to .282, a decrease of 73 points, and an increased K% from 25.1% to 28.6%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cubs' projected K-rate is 19.1% versus Fried, down 0.8% from their 19.9% season average, which suggests a potential for more contact plays. In contrast, the Yankees' K-rate is projected to rise to 25.3% against Boyd, up 1.5% from their 23.8% season average, indicating a possible value in strikeout props.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern. Without specific umpire tendencies, bettors should be cautious of unexpected shifts in game dynamics.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
Ian Happ (.223 → .301, +77 points) meets both criteria, suggesting a lean on his batting props as his projected xBA against Fried is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +77 point boost.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Yankees' projected K-rate of 25.3% against Boyd does not meet the +4% increase criteria for a strong lean on strikeout OVER props.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be on Ian Happ - his .301 xBA against Fried's arsenal is well above our .300 threshold with a significant +77 point boost. No significant edges in strikeout props meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
