Game Time: 7/13, 01:35 PM
1. Brief Intro
The Chicago Cubs head to Yankee Stadium to face the New York Yankees in an intriguing matchup. DraftKings lists the Yankees as a -132 favorite, with the Cubs as a +108 underdog, and 56% of the money backing New York. This game presents a compelling betting angle, especially with the unique pitching styles and lineup dynamics.
2. Pitcher Breakdown
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs. Will Warren
Shota Imanaga (CHC):
Imanaga utilizes a varied arsenal with a Four-Seam Fastball (50% usage, 90.9 mph), Splitter (36% usage, 82.7 mph), and a Sweeper (11% usage, 80.2 mph), complemented by a Curveball (3% usage, 71.9 mph). His approach leans towards pitch variation rather than overpowering velocity. The Yankees lineup averages .253 this season, with a projected xBA of .215 against Imanaga’s diverse mix, indicating potential struggles against his off-speed offerings.
Will Warren (NYY):
Warren brings a more traditional mix with his Four-Seam Fastball (39% usage, 93.3 mph) and a Sweeper (22% usage, 82.6 mph), supported by a Sinker (20% usage, 93.0 mph) and a Changeup (12% usage, 87.0 mph). The Cubs lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .263 against Warren’s arsenal, suggesting they might handle his pitches better than average.
3. Lineup Advantage vs. Arsenal
Lineup Matchups & Batting Edges
For Away Team vs. Home Pitcher:
The Cubs lineup averages .256 this season but projects to .263 against Warren’s arsenal. Ian Happ shows the most significant improvement, with his season BA of .227 projected to .288 against Warren (+61 points), and a season K% of 22.6% dropping to 20.5%. Conversely, Kyle Tucker sees a decrease, with a season BA of .282 falling to .238 (-44 points), and his K% of 13.9% increasing to 17.1%.
For Home Team vs. Away Pitcher:
The Yankees lineup averages .253 this season but projects to a low .215 against Imanaga’s arsenal. Oswald Peraza stands out positively, moving from a season BA of .158 to an arsenal xBA of .244 (+86 points), while Aaron Judge experiences the biggest drop, from a season BA of .358 to .246 (-112 points), with his K% rising significantly from 25.1% to 38.7%.
4. Lineup Strikeout Trends vs. Arsenal
Strikeout Risks & Rewards
The Cubs’ projected K-rate is 20.1% vs. Warren, a slight decrease from their 20.3% season average, suggesting limited strikeout risk. Conversely, the Yankees’ projected K-rate jumps to 28.3% vs. Imanaga, up 4.6% from their 23.7% season average, highlighting a potential strikeout opportunity for Imanaga.
5. Umpire Influence
Behind the Plate: TBA
Umpire assignment has not been announced, which makes prop volatility a concern.
6. Betting Interpretation / Final Lean
Final Lean & Betting Takeaway
STEP-BY-STEP BETTING ANALYSIS:
STEP 1: Check ALL individual batters for prop opportunities
No batters from the Cubs meet the criteria of an xBA above .300 with a boost greater than +20 points. Therefore, no batting lean is suggested.
STEP 2: Check team strikeout rates for pitcher props
The Yankees’ projected K-rate against Imanaga is 28.3%, up 4.6% from their season average of 23.7%. This meets the criteria of an arsenal K% over 25% with an increase greater than 4%, making Imanaga’s strikeout OVER a potential lean.
STEP 3: Report findings
Our final lean would be Shota Imanaga strikeout OVER - the Yankees' projected K-rate jumps to 28.3% vs. Imanaga, up 4.6% from their 23.7% season average. No significant batting edges were found to meet our betting threshold in this matchup.
